2004 Election with Projected 2024 Electoral Votes
Estimate as of December, 2018
George Bush was reelected with 286 electoral votes in 2004. John Kerry had 252 (Kerry actually had 251, but a faithless elector is ignored for our purposes here). Had the projected 2024 map been in effect in 2004, Bush would have won an additional 12 electoral votes. Ohio put Bush over the top in 2004, not without some controversy. With the shifts in population since then, the state's 17 electoral votes would not have been enough to change the outcome on a 2024 map.