2025-2026 Governor Elections: Consensus Forecast

As of May 1, 2025

The nation’s governorships are nearly evenly split between the two parties, with 27 Republicans and 23 Democrats holding office. New Jersey and Virginia hold elections in 2025, with 36 other states to follow in 2026. Another 11 states follow in 2024. 

This map is a composite of ratings by several forecasters. Currently, it is limited to just two, but more will be included as additional projections become available.

Use the map as a starting point to create and share your own 2025-26 governor forecast.

May 1: Initial 2025-26 Consensus

Democrats
Republicans
*
*

*no 2025-26 election

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up

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Governor Elections
Current 23 27
Consensus Forecast 19 25 6
Interactive Map Above

Upcoming Elections

2025 2026 2027 2028^
1 18 1 3
1 18 2 6

^Excludes NH & VT: Next election is 2026 (two-year terms)

State Incumbent Party Since Term Consensus
AK Mike Dunleavy
2018 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits.
AZ Katie Hobbs
2023 1st
DE Matt Meyer
2025 1st
GA Brian Kemp
2019 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits.
IA Kim Reynolds
2017 3rd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2026.
IN Mike Braun
2025 1st
KS Laura Kelly
2019 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits.
KY Andy Beshear
2019 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2027 due to term limits.
LA Jeff Landry
2024 1st
ME Janet Mills
2019 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits.
MI Gretchen Whitmer
2019 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits.
MN Tim Walz
2019 2nd
MO Mike Kehoe
2024 1st
MS Tate Reeves
2020 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2027 due to term limits.
MT Greg Gianforte
2021 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2028 due to term limits.
NC Josh Stein
2025 1st
ND Kelly Armstrong
2024 1st
NH Kelly Ayotte
2025 1st
NJ Phil Murphy
2018 2nd
2025 Election: incumbent cannot run due to term limits
NM Michelle Lujan Grisham
2019 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits.
NV Joe Lombardo
2023 1st
NY Kathy Hochul
2021 2nd
OH Mike DeWine
2019 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits.
OR Tina Kotek
2023 1st
PA Josh Shapiro
2023 1st
RI Daniel McKee
2021 2nd
UT Spencer Cox
2021 2nd
VA Glenn Youngkin
2022 1st
2025 Election: incumbent cannot run due to term limits
VT Phil Scott
2017 5th
WA Bob Ferguson
2025 1st
WI Tony Evers
2019 2nd
WV Patrick Morrisey
2025 1st
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
AL Kay Ivey
2017 3rd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits.
AR Sarah Huckabee Sanders
2023 1st
CA Gavin Newsom
2019 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits.
CO Jared Polis
2019 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits.
CT Ned Lamont
2019 2nd
FL Ron DeSantis
2019 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits.
HI Josh Green
2022 1st
ID Brad Little
2019 2nd
IL J.B. Pritzker
2019 2nd
MA Maura Healey
2023 1st
MD Wes Moore
2023 1st
NE Jim Pillen
2023 1st
OK Kevin Stitt
2019 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits.
SC Henry McMaster
2017 3rd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits.
SD Larry Rhoden
2025 1st
Took office 1/25/2025, succeeding Kristi Noem
TN Bill Lee
2019 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits.
TX Greg Abbott
2015 3rd
WY Mark Gordon
2019 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2026 due to term limits.