2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination

1,976 Pledged Delegates Needed to Win on 1st Ballot

The Democratic Party will nominate a 2024 presidential candidate at its convention in Chicago the week of August 19, 2024.

Estimated Delegates Earned


Biden
3,886


Uncommitted
36


Phillips
4


Palmer
3

Delegate counts will be available beginning with the South Carolina Primary on February 3, 2024. There are 3,949 pledged delegates; it will take 50% + 1 of these (1,976 or more) to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot. An additional 749 automatic delegates (more commonly called superdelegates) will not participate on the first ballot (unless the nomination is uncontested). This approach was first used in 2020.

Visit the Democratic Delegate Tracker for a breakdown of delegates earned by candidate and state.

The map below shows the estimated total number of delegates each state or territory will send to the Democratic convention. Select a state on the map for more details about its primary or caucus. Each linked page will also include any available polling, along with results information as the event takes place.

VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC
AS
GU
MP
PR
VI
DA
Early Super Tuesday March 5 Other March April May June
208 1,420 1,004 722 365 230

Democratic contests allocate pledged delegates proportionately to candidates receiving at least 15% of the popular vote. In most locations, some delegates are awarded on the statewide vote, while others are jurisdictional (usually by congressional district).

The 15% threshold is calculated separately at each division. That means, for example, a candidate getting less than 15% statewide but more than 15% in a congressional district may still win one or more delegates. Special thanks to The Greenpapers and FHQ for making it a lot easier to aggregate the data. Visit those sites for the finer details of the state-by-state allocation rules.

National Polls

The results of national polling for a preferred Democratic nominee is shown below. While these national polls are directionally interesting, the nominee will ultimately be chosen based on delegates earned during state-by-state primary and caucus votes.

Source Date Sample Biden Williamson Phillips Other
Poll Averages† 74.1% 7.0% 6.0% -
Emerson College 3/07/2024 540 RV 78% 3% 4% 15%
TIPP Insights 3/04/2024 603 RV ±4% 76% - 9% 15%
NY Times / Siena College 3/02/2024 224 RV 77% - 12% 11%
Marquette Law School 2/22/2024 356 RV ±6.8% 66% 6% 2% 26%
Quinnipiac 2/21/2024 624 RV ±3.9% 80% - 15% 5%
Echelon Insights 2/16/2024 484 LV 78% - 8% 14%
Emerson College 2/16/2024 489 RV 74% - 9% 17%
McLaughlin & Associates 2/01/2024 425 LV 67% 9% 2% 22%
Quinnipiac 1/31/2024 693 RV ±3.7% 78% 11% 6% 5%
Yahoo / YouGov 1/30/2024 475 RV 74% 4% 3% 19%
Emerson College 1/30/2024 472 RV 72% 4% 4% 20%
Redfield & Wilton 1/19/2024 614 LV 77% 2% 3% 18%
TIPP Insights 1/11/2024 597 RV ±4.1% 69% 5% 4% 22%
Suffolk University 1/02/2024 278 LV 74% 9% 2% 15%
Echelon Insights 12/22/2023 449 LV 65% 8% 2% 25%
McLaughlin & Associates 12/21/2023 446 LV 69% 6% 5% 20%
Quinnipiac 12/20/2023 683 RV ±3.8% 75% 13% 5% 7%
Yahoo / YouGov 12/19/2023 458 RV 68% 4% 3% 25%
Emerson College 12/08/2023 402 RV 63% 5% 2% 30%
Echelon Insights 11/22/2023 484 LV 67% 6% 5% 22%
Emerson College 11/22/2023 599 RV 66% 5% 2% 27%
McLaughlin & Associates 11/21/2023 440 LV 66% 9% 3% 22%
NBC News 11/19/2023 311 RV ±5.6% 77% 12% 4% 7%
Fox News 11/15/2023 386 RV ±5% 72% 13% 3% 12%
Yahoo / YouGov 11/15/2023 461 RV 64% 4% 4% 28%
Quinnipiac 11/15/2023 666 RV ±3.8% 74% 12% 4% 10%
CNN 11/07/2023 562 RV 71% 8% 11% 10%
Echelon Insights 11/01/2023 472 LV 59% 7% 1% 33%
Quinnipiac 11/01/2023 695 RV ±3.7% 77% 8% 6% 9%
Suffolk University 10/23/2023 289 RV 73% 11% - 16%
Emerson College 10/20/2023 643 RV 70% 10% - 20%
Yahoo / YouGov 10/19/2023 509 RV 68% 6% - 26%
Marquette Law School 10/04/2023 361 RV ±6.3% 53% 3% - 44%
Echelon Insights 10/02/2023 499 LV 58% 4% - 38%
Emerson College 9/20/2023 457 RV 62% 4% - 34%
Yahoo / YouGov 9/19/2023 486 RV 68% 4% - 28%
Fox News 9/14/2023 404 RV ±5% 71% 6% - 23%
Quinnipiac 9/13/2023 724 RV ±3.6% 73% 8% - 19%
TIPP Insights 9/11/2023 606 RV ±4% 68% 5% - 27%
Redfield & Wilton 9/08/2023 541 LV 71% 3% - 26%
Echelon Insights 9/06/2023 521 LV 57% 6% - 37%
Emerson College 8/28/2023 374 LV 61% 4% - 35%
Yahoo / YouGov 8/22/2023 495 RV 69% 5% - 26%
Emerson College 8/19/2023 392 LV 69% 4% - 27%
Fox News 8/16/2023 399 RV ±5% 64% 9% - 27%
Quinnipiac 8/16/2023 666 RV ±3.8% 72% 9% - 19%
TIPP Insights 8/14/2023 615 RV ±4% 63% 4% - 33%
Echelon Insights 8/01/2023 500 LV 62% 5% - 33%
NY Times / Siena College 8/01/2023 478 RV 64% 10% - 26%
Marquette Law School 7/27/2023 350 RV ±6.7% 54% 6% - 40%
Yahoo / YouGov 7/19/2023 494 RV 69% 5% - 26%
Quinnipiac 7/19/2023 763 RV ±3.6% 71% 7% - 22%
TIPP Insights 7/17/2023 616 RV ±4% 60% 5% - 35%
Echelon Insights 7/05/2023 511 LV 65% 4% - 31%
Fox News 6/28/2023 394 RV ±5% 64% 10% - 26%
Emerson College 6/22/2023 441 LV 73% 3% - 24%
Yahoo / YouGov 6/22/2023 485 RV 67% 4% - 29%
Quinnipiac 6/14/2023 722 RV ±3.7% 70% 8% - 22%
TIPP Insights 6/12/2023 638 RV ±4% 68% 4% - 28%
Suffolk University 6/12/2023 293 LV 58% 6% - 36%
Yahoo / YouGov 6/01/2023 467 RV 62% 5% - 33%
Echelon Insights 5/26/2023 538 LV 60% 5% - 35%
CNN 5/25/2023 432 RV 60% 8% - 32%
Marquette Law School 5/24/2023 344 RV ±6.3% 53% 7% - 40%
Fox News 5/24/2023 390 RV ±5% 62% 8% - 30%
Yahoo / YouGov 5/10/2023 480 RV 57% 6% - 37%
Echelon Insights 4/28/2023 513 LV 66% 2% - 32%
Emerson College 4/27/2023 448 LV 70% 8% - 22%
Fox News 4/24/2023 392 RV ±5% 62% 9% - 29%
Morning Consult 4/11/2023 827 LV ±3% 70% 4% - 26%
Show:

†The average includes all polls within seven days of the date of the most recent poll, limited to one poll from any source. If there are fewer than five, the window is expanded to 30 days or five polls, whichever comes first. In the latter scenario, if there are multiple qualifying polls on the same calendar date as the oldest poll used, those will also be included.