Niskanen Center House Forecast

As of July 26, 2020

The current 2020 House forecast from Rachel Bitecofer of the Niskanen Center. Read the full analysis here.

Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 House forecast.

July 26: AZ-6 moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up; FL-18 from Safe Republican to Toss-up; IL-13, MN-7 from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

Current House 116^th Congress

Interactive Map Contested 2020

2021 House 117^th Congress

no 2020 election

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Safe	Likely	Leans	Tilt	Toss-up

Note: This color is used for Libertarian (MI-3)

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As of August 14, 2020 Details >>

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House Elections 2020


Current	232	198	1	4*
Consensus Forecast	222	188	0	25
Forecast

Forecast: Totals on interactive map
* Vacant Seat(s)

Most Competitive 2020 House Races

District	Incumbent	Party	Since	Term	Predictions		Margin of Victory
District	Incumbent	Party	Since	Term	Consensus	Map	House^(a)	President^(b)
Filtered list below matches districts currently visible in map window.
AK-AL	Don Young		1973	24th			6.5%	15.2%
AK-AL
AR-2	French Hill		2015	3rd			6.3%	10.7%
AR-2
AZ-1	Tom O'Halleran		2017	2nd			7.6%	1.1%
AZ-1
AZ-2	Ann Kirkpatrick		2019	1st			9.4%	4.9%
AZ-2
AZ-6	David Schweikert		2011	5th			10.3%	10.0%
AZ-6
CA-4	Tom McClintock		2009	6th			8.3%	14.7%
CA-4
CA-10	Josh Harder		2019	1st			4.4%	3.0%
CA-10
CA-21	TJ Cox		2019	1st			0.5%	15.5%
CA-21
CA-22	Devin Nunes		2003	9th			5.5%	9.5%
CA-22
CA-25	Mike Garcia		2020	1st			8.7%	6.7%
CA-25
CA-39	Gil Cisneros		2019	1st			3.1%	8.6%
CA-39
CA-48	Harley Rouda		2019	1st			7.1%	1.7%
CA-48
CO-3	Scott Tipton		2011	5th			7.9%	12.0%
CO-3	Incumbent defeated in primary for 2020 election.
FL-13	Charlie Crist		2017	2nd			15.2%	3.2%
FL-13
FL-15	Ross Spano		2019	1st			6.0%	10.0%
FL-15
FL-16	Vern Buchanan		2007	7th			9.1%	10.7%
FL-16
FL-26	Debbie Mucarsel-Powell		2019	1st			1.7%	16.3%
FL-26
FL-27	Donna Shalala		2019	1st			5.9%	19.6%
FL-27
GA-6	Lucy McBath		2019	1st			1.0%	1.5%
GA-6
GA-7	Rob Woodall		2011	5th			0.1%	6.3%
GA-7	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
IA-1	Abby Finkenauer		2019	1st			5.0%	3.5%
IA-1
IA-2	David Loebsack		2007	7th			12.1%	4.1%
IA-2	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
IA-3	Cindy Axne		2019	1st			2.1%	3.5%
IA-3
IL-6	Sean Casten		2019	1st			7.1%	7.0%
IL-6
IL-13	Rodney Davis		2013	4th			1.1%	5.5%
IL-13
IL-14	Lauren Underwood		2019	1st			4.9%	3.9%
IL-14
IL-17	Cheri Bustos		2013	4th			23.5%	0.6%
IL-17
IN-5	Susan Brooks		2013	4th			13.5%	11.8%
IN-5	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
KS-2	Steve Watkins		2019	1st			0.8%	18.4%
KS-2	Incumbent defeated in primary for 2020 election.
KS-3	Sharice Davids		2019	1st			9.6%	1.2%
KS-3
KY-6	Andy Barr		2013	4th			3.2%	15.3%
KY-6
ME-2	Jared Golden		2019	1st			1.0%	10.3%
ME-2
MI-3	Justin Amash		2011	5th			11.2%	9.4%
MI-3	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
MI-6	Fred Upton		1987	17th			4.5%	8.4%
MI-6
MI-8	Elissa Slotkin		2019	1st			3.8%	6.7%
MI-8
MI-11	Haley Stevens		2019	1st			6.6%	4.4%
MI-11
MN-1	Jim Hagedorn		2019	1st			0.4%	14.9%
MN-1
MN-2	Angela Craig		2019	1st			5.5%	1.2%
MN-2
MN-7	Collin Peterson		1991	15th			4.2%	30.8%
MN-7
MO-2	Ann Wagner		2013	4th			3.9%	10.3%
MO-2
MT-AL	Greg Gianforte		2017	2nd			4.6%	20.6%
MT-AL	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
NC-2	George Holding		2013	4th			N/A	24.4%
NC-2	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
NC-6	Mark Walker		2015	3rd			N/A	21.5%
NC-6	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
NC-8	Richard Hudson		2013	4th			N/A	9.1%
NC-8
NC-9	Dan Bishop		2019	1st			N/A	10.4%
NC-9
NC-11	OPEN						N/A	17.3%
NC-11
NE-2	Don Bacon		2017	2nd			1.9%	2.2%
NE-2
NH-1	Chris Pappas		2019	1st			8.5%	1.6%
NH-1
NH-2	Ann Kuster		2013	4th			12.7%	2.4%
NH-2
NJ-2	Jeff Van Drew		2019	1st			7.6%	4.6%
NJ-2
NJ-3	Andy Kim		2019	1st			1.2%	6.2%
NJ-3
NJ-5	Josh Gottheimer		2017	2nd			16.9%	1.0%
NJ-5
NJ-7	Tom Malinowski		2019	1st			5.0%	1.1%
NJ-7
NM-2	Xochitl Torres Small		2019	1st			1.8%	10.2%
NM-2
NV-3	Susie Lee		2019	1st			9.0%	1.0%
NV-3
NV-4	Steven Horsford		2019	1st			8.1%	4.9%
NV-4
NY-1	Lee Zeldin		2015	3rd			6.0%	12.3%
NY-1
NY-2	Peter King		1993	14th			6.7%	9.1%
NY-2	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
NY-11	Max Rose		2019	1st			5.9%	9.8%
NY-11
NY-18	Sean P. Maloney		2013	4th			10.1%	1.9%
NY-18
NY-19	Antonio Delgado		2019	1st			2.8%	6.8%
NY-19
NY-22	Anthony Brindisi		2019	1st			1.2%	15.5%
NY-22
NY-24	John Katko		2015	3rd			6.2%	3.6%
NY-24
NY-27	Chris Jacobs		2020	1st			0.5%	24.5%
NY-27
OH-1	Steve Chabot		2011	5th			4.2%	6.6%
OH-1
OH-10	Michael Turner		2003	9th			13.7%	7.3%
OH-10
OH-12	Troy Balderson		2018	2nd			4.1%	11.3%
OH-12
OK-5	Kendra Horn		2019	1st			1.3%	13.4%
OK-5
OR-4	Peter DeFazio		1987	17th			15.0%	0.1%
OR-4
PA-1	Brian Fitzpatrick		2017	2nd			2.5%	2.0%
PA-1
PA-7	Susan Wild		2018	2nd			10.0%	1.1%
PA-7
PA-8	Matthew Cartwright		2013	4th			9.2%	9.5%
PA-8
PA-10	Scott Perry		2013	4th			2.6%	8.9%
PA-10
PA-17	Conor Lamb		2018	2nd			12.5%	2.5%
PA-17
SC-1	Joe Cunningham		2019	1st			1.3%	13.1%
SC-1
SC-2	Joe Wilson		2001	10th			13.7%	17.7%
SC-2
TX-2	Daniel Crenshaw		2019	1st			7.2%	9.3%
TX-2
TX-3	Van Taylor		2019	1st			10.0%	14.2%
TX-3
TX-6	Ron Wright		2019	1st			7.7%	12.3%
TX-6
TX-7	Lizzie Fletcher		2019	1st			5.0%	1.4%
TX-7
TX-10	Michael McCaul		2005	8th			3.9%	9.0%
TX-10
TX-21	Chip Roy		2019	1st			2.8%	10.0%
TX-21
TX-22	Pete Olson		2009	6th			4.9%	7.9%
TX-22	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
TX-23	Will Hurd		2015	3rd			0.4%	3.4%
TX-23	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
TX-24	Kenny Marchant		2005	8th			3.2%	6.2%
TX-24	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
TX-25	Roger Williams		2013	4th			8.9%	14.9%
TX-25
TX-31	John Carter		2003	9th			2.9%	12.7%
TX-31
TX-32	Colin Allred		2019	1st			6.3%	1.9%
TX-32
UT-4	Ben McAdams		2019	1st			0.2%	6.7%
UT-4
VA-2	Elaine Luria		2019	1st			2.2%	3.4%
VA-2
VA-5	Denver Riggleman		2019	1st			6.5%	11.1%
VA-5	Incumbent defeated in primary for 2020 election.
VA-7	Abigail Spanberger		2019	1st			1.9%	6.5%
VA-7
WA-3	Jaime Herrera Beutler		2011	5th			5.3%	7.4%
WA-3
WA-8	Kim Schrier		2019	1st			4.8%	3.0%
WA-8
WI-3	Ron Kind		1997	12th			19.3%	4.5%
WI-3
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
AL-1	Bradley Byrne		2014	4th			26.3%	29.4%
AL-1	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
AL-2	Martha Roby		2011	5th			22.9%	31.9%
AL-2	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
AL-3	Mike Rogers		2003	9th			27.4%	33.0%
AL-3
AL-4	Robert Aderholt		1997	12th			59.6%	63.0%
AL-4
AL-5	Mo Brooks		2011	5th			22.1%	33.4%
AL-5
AL-6	Gary Palmer		2015	3rd			38.4%	44.7%
AL-6
AL-7	Terri Sewell		2011	5th			*	41.2%
AL-7
AR-1	Rick Crawford		2011	5th			40.1%	34.8%
AR-1
AR-3	Steve Womack		2011	5th			32.1%	31.4%
AR-3
AR-4	Bruce Westerman		2015	3rd			35.5%	32.9%
AR-4
AZ-3	Raul Grijalva		2003	9th			27.7%	29.9%
AZ-3
AZ-4	Paul Gosar		2011	5th			37.6%	40.2%
AZ-4
AZ-5	Andy Biggs		2017	2nd			18.8%	21.1%
AZ-5
AZ-7	Ruben Gallego		2015	3rd			85.8%	49.2%
AZ-7
AZ-8	Debbie Lesko		2018	2nd			10.9%	21.1%
AZ-8
AZ-9	Greg Stanton		2019	1st			22.1%	16.3%
AZ-9
CA-1	Doug LaMalfa		2013	4th			9.7%	19.7%
CA-1
CA-2	Jared Huffman		2013	4th			53.4%	45.7%
CA-2
CA-3	John Garamendi		2009	6th			16.0%	12.6%
CA-3
CA-5	Mike Thompson		1999	11th			78.3%	44.9%
CA-5
CA-6	Doris Matsui		2005	8th			61.2% ^	44.8%
CA-6
CA-7	Ami Bera		2013	4th			10.0%	11.4%
CA-7
CA-8	Paul Cook		2013	4th			20.2% ^	15.1%
CA-8	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
CA-9	Jerry McNerney		2007	7th			12.8%	18.6%
CA-9
CA-11	Mark DeSaulnier		2015	3rd			48.2%	48.8%
CA-11
CA-12	Nancy Pelosi		1987	17th			73.6%	77.5%
CA-12
CA-13	Barbara Lee		1998	12th			88.3%	80.6%
CA-13
CA-14	Jackie Speier		2008	7th			58.4%	58.7%
CA-14
CA-15	Eric Swalwell		2013	4th			45.9%	45.7%
CA-15
CA-16	Jim Costa		2013	4th			14.9%	21.6%
CA-16
CA-17	Ro Khanna		2017	2nd			50.6%	53.4%
CA-17
CA-18	Anna Eshoo		1993	14th			48.9%	53.2%
CA-18
CA-19	Zoe Lofgren		1995	13th			47.4%	51.4%
CA-19
CA-20	Jimmy Panetta		2017	2nd			81.2%	47.2%
CA-20
CA-23	Kevin McCarthy		2007	7th			27.5%	22.0%
CA-23
CA-24	Salud Carbajal		2017	2nd			16.1%	20.2%
CA-24
CA-26	Julia Brownley		2013	4th			23.5%	21.9%
CA-26
CA-27	Judy Chu		2009	6th			58.6% ^	37.6%
CA-27
CA-28	Adam Schiff		2001	10th			56.7%	49.8%
CA-28
CA-29	Tony Cardenas		2013	4th			61.2%	60.9%
CA-29
CA-30	Brad Sherman		1997	12th			46.8%	43.4%
CA-30
CA-31	Pete Aguilar		2015	3rd			17.2%	21.1%
CA-31
CA-32	Grace Napolitano		1999	11th			37.5%	38.9%
CA-32
CA-33	Ted Lieu		2015	3rd			40.0%	41.3%
CA-33
CA-34	Jimmy Gomez		2017	2nd			72.5%	72.9%
CA-34
CA-35	Norma Torres		2015	3rd			38.7%	40.8%
CA-35
CA-36	Raul Ruiz		2013	4th			17.1%	8.8%
CA-36
CA-37	Karen Bass		2011	5th			78.1%	76.1%
CA-37
CA-38	Linda Sanchez		2003	9th			37.7%	39.6%
CA-38
CA-40	Lucille Roybal-Allard		1993	14th			77.3%	69.4%
CA-40
CA-41	Mark Takano		2013	4th			28.6%	27.9%
CA-41
CA-42	Ken Calvert		1993	14th			13.8%	12.0%
CA-42
CA-43	Maxine Waters		1991	15th			55.3%	61.7%
CA-43
CA-44	Nanette Barragan		2017	2nd			37.0% ^	70.7%
CA-44
CA-45	Katie Porter		2019	1st			4.1%	5.4%
CA-45
CA-46	Lou Correa		2017	2nd			38.2%	38.4%
CA-46
CA-47	Alan Lowenthal		2013	4th			29.7%	31.6%
CA-47
CA-49	Mike Levin		2019	1st			12.7%	7.5%
CA-49
CA-50	OPEN						3.5%	15.0%
CA-50
CA-51	Juan Vargas		2013	4th			42.1%	49.0%
CA-51
CA-52	Scott Peters		2013	4th			27.6%	22.5%
CA-52
CA-53	Susan Davis		2001	10th			37.9%	34.9%
CA-53	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
CO-1	Diana DeGette		1997	12th			50.7%	45.8%
CO-1
CO-2	Joe Neguse		2019	1st			26.6%	21.3%
CO-2
CO-4	Ken Buck		2015	3rd			21.2%	23.1%
CO-4
CO-5	Doug Lamborn		2007	7th			17.7%	24.0%
CO-5
CO-6	Jason Crow		2019	1st			11.2%	8.9%
CO-6
CO-7	Ed Perlmutter		2007	7th			25.0%	12.0%
CO-7
CT-1	John Larson		1999	11th			28.8%	23.1%
CT-1
CT-2	Joe Courtney		2007	7th			26.7%	2.9%
CT-2
CT-3	Rosa DeLauro		1991	15th			29.1%	15.5%
CT-3
CT-4	James Himes		2009	6th			22.4%	23.0%
CT-4
CT-5	Jahana Hayes		2019	1st			11.7%	4.1%
CT-5
DE-AL	Lisa Rochester		2017	2nd			28.9%	11.5%
DE-AL
FL-1	Matt Gaetz		2017	2nd			34.1%	39.3%
FL-1
FL-2	Neal Dunn		2017	2nd			34.8%	35.6%
FL-2
FL-3	Ted Yoho		2013	4th			15.2%	16.0%
FL-3	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
FL-4	John Rutherford		2017	2nd

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