Niskanen Center House Forecast

As of July 26, 2020

The current 2020 House forecast from Rachel Bitecofer of the Niskanen Center. Read the full analysis here

Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 House forecast.

July 26: AZ-6 moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up; FL-18 from Safe Republican to Toss-up; IL-13, MN-7 from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

no 2020 election
no 2020 election

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up

Note: This color is used for Libertarian (MI-3)

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House Elections 2020

Current 233 197 1 4*
Consensus Forecast 232 182 0 21

Forecast: Totals on interactive map
* Vacant Seat(s)

District Incumbent Party Since Term Predictions Margin of Victory
Consensus Map House(a) President(b)
AK-AL Don Young
1973 24th
6.5% 15.2%
Alyse Galvin
Don Young*
AR-2 French Hill
2015 3rd
6.3% 10.7%
Joyce Elliott
French Hill*
AZ-6 David Schweikert
2011 5th
10.3% 10.0%
Hiral Tipirneni
David Schweikert*
CA-21 TJ Cox
2019 1st
0.5% 15.5%
TJ Cox*
David Valadao
CA-25 Mike Garcia
2020 1st
8.7% 6.7%
Christy Smith
Mike Garcia*
CA-39 Gil Cisneros
2019 1st
3.1% 8.6%
Gil Cisneros*
Young Kim
CA-48 Harley Rouda
2019 1st
7.1% 1.7%
Harley Rouda*
Michelle Steel
CO-3 Scott Tipton
2011 5th
7.9% 12.0%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2020 election.
Diane Bush
Lauren Boebert
FL-15 Ross Spano
2019 1st
6.0% 10.0%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2020 election.
Alan Cohn
Scott Franklin
FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
2019 1st
1.7% 16.3%
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell*
Carlos Gimenez
GA-7 Rob Woodall
2011 5th
0.1% 6.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Carolyn Bourdeaux
Rich McCormick
IA-1 Abby Finkenauer
2019 1st
5.0% 3.5%
Abby Finkenauer*
Ashley Hinson
IA-2 David Loebsack
2007 7th
12.1% 4.1%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Rita Hart
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
IA-3 Cindy Axne
2019 1st
2.1% 3.5%
Cindy Axne*
David Young