September 1, 2015
There may be 11 participants in the next 10 person Republican debate, based on new rules announced by CNN today.
Originally, CNN said that only candidates in the top 10 from polls taken from July 16 to September 10 could particpate. While similar to the Fox News approach for the first debate, it failed to account for shifts in public opinion occurring as a result of that event.
Fiorina participated in an earlier forum at the August 6 Fox debate, and her strong performance has propelled her to well within the top 10 in polls taken since then.
The new CNN rules will keep the original criteria, while adding a separate criteria to include those in the top 10 for polls taken post-debate until September 10.
This likely means 11 participants at the September 16 debate, including the 10 candidates from the first debate plus Fiorina. As it turns out, this appears to be a good break point, based on the average of the most recent polls:
Here's the full CNN statement on the rules change. The debate will take place at the Reagan Presidential Library.
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August 27, 2015
The latest national poll from Quinnipiac shows Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton continuing to lead the field in their prospective parties. Looking ahead to November, it shows Joe Biden outperforming Clinton and Bernie Sanders in hypothetical match-ups vs. Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio or Trump.
Republican Nomination: Trump continues to lap the Republican field, earning 28% in this newest survey. Ben Carson was second at 12%, followed by Bush, Rubio and Ted Cruz at 7%. Walker was next at 6%, losing about half of the support he received in the last Quinnipiac poll at the end of July.
Democratic Nomination: Clinton led with 45%, with Sanders at 22% and Biden at 18%. Clinton has lost 10% off the 55% she received in the last Quinnipiac poll. Half of that support has moved to Sanders, half to Biden.
General Election: The Democratic nominee was ahead in most of these match-ups, although usually pretty close. What was most interesting is that VP Biden, still not in the race, is outperforming his prospective rivals vs. Republicans. Of course, the very fact that he's not in the race might have something to do with this.
Quinnipiac also asked "What is the first word that comes to mind..." in regards to Clinton, Bush and Trump. We've compiled the top 10 for each candidate below; use the links in the preceding sentence to go to the full list. Some amusing responses.
August 25, 2015
How unlikely would the above headline have seemed a few months ago? In the latest New Hampshire poll from Pubic Policy Polling, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders lead the field for their respective parties.
Trump is destroying the Republican opposition in New Hampshire. His 35% share is more than 3 times that of his closest challengers, John Kasich and Carly Fiorina. Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are in single digits, at 7%.
Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton in the 2nd consecutive poll of New Hampshire democrats, and has now taken the lead based on a 270toWin average of recent polls. Sanders enjoys a regional benefit here, being well-known as Senator from neighboring Vermont. That said, while Clinton leads in most other places, the outsized importance of New Hampshire as an early primary state should give added visibility to Sanders.
The New Hampshire primary is scheduled for February 9, 2016.
August 22, 2015
A new Texas poll of prospective Republican presidential nominees shows Donald Trump now leading Senator Ted Cruz. Trump received 24%, with Cruz following at 16%. Ben Carson was third with 12%. Jeb Bush was fourth at 9%. Former governor Rick Perry received just 4% support.
Just two months ago, a poll by the Texas Tribune showed Cruz at 20%, followed by Perry at 12% and Scott Walker at 10%. Trump received only 2%.
Bush remains in third place overall when averaging the two recent Texas polls. The Texas primary is scheduled for March 1, 2016, part of the 'SEC Primary' of 8 southern states.
Click or tap the image above to see who is leading the Republican polls in each state.
August 20, 2015
A new Quinnipiac poll of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania shows continued strength for Donald Trump on the Republican side; Hillary Clinton the Democratic side. However, that enthusiam wanes in the general election, with intraparty challengers doing as well as or better in general election match-ups.
In the general election, Quinnipiac tested Clinton, Biden and Sanders vs. Bush, Rubio and Trump. Among the more interesting findings:
- Bush and Rubio have moved well ahead of Clinton in Florida
- Biden does as well as, or better than Clinton vs. Republicans
- Bush and Rubio are outperforming Trump vs. Democrats
These new numbers have caused some changes on our polling-based Clinton vs. Republican 2016 electoral maps. You can also get to our new Sanders vs. Republicans maps from that preceding URL.
In the Republican primaries, Trump is ahead in Florida, notably taking the lead over home-state rivals Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio in the Sunshine State. Trump also leads, by double digits, in Pennsylvania. In Ohio, that state's governor John Kasich leads, with Trump in 2nd.
Hillary Clinton continues to hold a wide margin on the Democratic primaries in all 3 states, where the results were basically the same. That said, she is now polling under 50% in all three states, a loss of 8-15 points since the last time Quinnipiac surveyed these states in June.
To see all the primary/caucus polls to this point, visit our Republican Nomination or Democratic Nomination pages. The individual state links are below the national polls.
August 18, 2015
Two new Republican polls out this week give Donald Trump about 25% of the Republican vote, keeping him well ahead of his nearest challengers. There was some variation behind Trump. In the CNN-ORC poll, Jeb Bush was the only other candidate to reach double digits, at 13%. Ben Carson, Scott Walker and Marco Rubio were bunched just under 10%. The Fox News poll showed a slightly greater preference for more conservative candidates, with Ben Carson and Ted Cruz trailing Trump with Bush in 4th place.
Trump continues to double his nearest competitors in the 270toWin poll average.
The 2nd Republican debate, hosted by CNN, will be held September 16 at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, CA. 16 candidates that averaged 1% or more in 3 national polls have been invited. Jim Gilmore was not, although he has until September 10 to make the cut.
As with the first debate, the field will be divided into two groups, with those in the top 10 making the main stage. At this point, it looks like 11 candidates will be fighting for those 10 slots. Carly Fiorina's strong performance in the 'kids's table' debate last month has propelled her into the top 10. This means that one of Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Fiorina, John Kasich or Chris Christie will likely be excluded. All 5 are tightly bunched within 1% at this time.
August 12, 2015
Three Iowa Republican caucus polls, with survey dates after the first debate last Thursday, have been released early this week. All show Donald Trump leading, with 17-22% of the 17 person field.
Dr. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina seemed to have gained the most ground, with Carson now in 3rd place in the 270toWin Iowa average. Fiorina has pushed into 6th place after seeing her support more than double in Iowa.
Looking at some of the other results, Scott Walker remains in second overall, but has seen a notable drop-off since the debate. Jeb Bush has lost support as well, with two of this week's polls having him at just 5%. John Kasich received high marks for his debate performance, but Iowa voters were unimpressed; his level of support remained at about 3%.
Our Iowa Republican caucus page has details on all the polls.The Iowa caucus is scheduled for February 1.
Click or tap the image above to see who is leading the polls in each Republican primary/caucus state.
August 12, 2015
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders leads former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 44-37% in a new poll from Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald. Most polled, by a 65-11% margin, still think Clinton will be the eventual Democratic nominee.
This is the first poll showing Sanders ahead of Clinton; she has a lead of about 3% when averaging recent New Hampshire polls. Nationally, Clinton maintains a considerable lead. It will be interesting to see how that shifts as voters across the nation become as familiar with Sanders as those in New England.
Bookmark our Democratic Primary page to see national and state poll results, with additional content coming as the 2016 primary and caucus contents near.
August 4, 2015
Fox News has announced the lineup for the first Republican debate, to be held this Thursday in Cleveland. The debate will be on Fox News at 9PM eastern time.
As we noted earlier today, recent polling has been fairly consistent and so there were no surprises in the final announcement. At the center will be Donald Trump, flanked by Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. Also participating will be Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie and John Kasich.
Missing the cut, and invited to participate in a 5PM forum that day: Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki and Jim Gilmore.
Graphic credit: Fox 8 Cleveland
August 4, 2015
The first of twelve GOP debates will be this Thursday, in Cleveland, Ohio, also the site of the Republican National Convention next July. As has been widely reported, Fox is limiting the main stage in this first debate to the top ten candidates based on an average of the five most recent, nationally recognized polls.
With an influx of polling early this week, here is our calculated average for the GOP field:
See the underlying polls here. Not shown are Graham, Gilmore and Pataki, all averaging under 0.5%.
These may not be the five polls Fox uses to come up with its average -- the cutoff for polls to be considered is 5PM eastern today -- but every indication is that Chris Christie and John Kasich will get the final two spots, and Rick Perry will join the other low-polling announced candidates at a separate debate, scheduled for 5PM that evening.
While it remains a bit questionable to base the debate field on an election that doesn't exist, the results of these last five polls have been pretty consistent.
The debate airs at 9PM Thursday on Fox News.