Election News

Polling Update for Tuesday's Indiana Primary

May 2, 2016

Indiana holds the only primary this week. The polls are open 6AM to 6PM local time. Part of the state is in Central Time, meaning the last polls would close at 7PM Eastern Time. That is likely when the networks will begin reporting results. Depending on the outcome, the narrative may begin to shift to a prospective Trump vs. Clinton match-up this fall.

Republican: Trump is at about 1,000 delegates after his strong showing on the East Coast the past two weeks. Indiana has 57 delegates, awarded on a split winner take all basis. 30 of these will go to the statewide popular vote winner, with the remaining 27 awarded, in groups of 3, to the winner of each of the state's 9 congressional districts. 

 

Reviewing the polls, Trump has a 3 point lead, on average. However, Trump likely has the momentum heading into Tuesday. The two most recent polls have him up by 9 to 15 points. The one poll that shows Cruz well ahead was a survey conducted over a two week period. A Trump victory statewide seems likely; the question then becomes how many congressional districts he will win. Assuming it is at least 5, that will put him over 1,050 delegates, well inside 200 of the 1,237 needed to secure the nomination. 

Looking ahead, there's been no polling for next week's Nebraska primary, which awards 36 delegates on a winner take all basis. The conventional wisdom has been that Cruz will win there. However, the prediction markets have made a pronounced move in Trump's direction over the past week; with his probability of winning doubling, to near 60%.

If Trump were to take Indiana and then win in Nebraska, his path to 1,237 would be that much more clear. Map it out with our interactive delegate calculator.

Democrat: Clinton enters the week about 200 delegates short of the required 2,383. This includes superdelegates. Bernie Sanders strategy revolves around leading in pledged delegates by the time the primary calendar wraps up and then convincing the superdelegates to switch their positon at the Democratic Convention. The math is not in his favor. It is also worth noting that, in the superdelegate era, Al Gore was the only Democrat to arrive at the convention having clinched the nomination on the strength of pledged delegates alone. 

Looking specifically at Indiana, most polls give Clinton a single digit lead; it averages about 6 points. Tuesday's primary will award 83 pledged delegates, allocated proportionately based on statewide and individual district results. This proportional approach, common to all Democratic contests, makes a late-in-the-campaign comeback by Sanders all that much more challenging.

Neither Trump nor Clinton is likely to officially clinch the nomination until the California primary on June 7. However, it seems increasingly likely they will meet in November.



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Delegate Update: Trump, Clinton Getting Closer

April 29, 2016

This week's 5 East Coast primaries, dominated by Hillary Clinton & Donald Trump, have moved those candidates much closer to a general election meeting on November 8th

On the Republican side, after sweeping all five states on Tuesday, Trump is now just short of 1,000 delegates. While he outperformed across the board, his biggest boost is coming from Pennsylvania, where he seems to getting the support of the majority of the state's 54 elected, unbound delegates. According to the AP, Trump has thus far secured the commitment of 40 of those, to just 4 for Ted Cruz. While these unbound delegates can theoretically change their mind, the AP is usually pretty conservative with their allocations. 

 

Considering this Pennsylvania windfall, Trump's path to the nomination has gotten a bit easier. Whether he makes it will likely come down to California, although a win in next Tuesday's Indiana primary, where Trump leads by 5, would go a long way. Use our interactive delegate calculator to see if you can get Trump to 1,237.

The math is much easier for Hillary Clinton. She is now just 200 delegates shy of the 2,383 needed to win the nomination. She'll likely pick up about 45 in next Tuesday's Indiana primary, where she leads by 6 in the polls. There are only about 235 pledged delegates available during May (including Indiana). Absent a surge in commitments by the remaining superdelegates, Clinton will likely not officially achieve the required number until June 7, the day of the huge (delegate-wise) California primary.


Trump Sweeps Five States, Clinton all but RI; Both Move Closer to Nomination

April 27, 2016

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton made substantial progress toward their respective party nominations Tuesday night. Trump won all five primaries, while Clinton won four of five. The delegate counts updated as of 8AM Wednesday:

Trump swept to victory in five East Coast states Tuesday, in the process mathematically eliminating Ted Cruz from winning the nomination outside a contested convention. Trump won at least 105 of the day's 118 delegates, and is sitting at 950 as of Wednesday morning. 1,237 are needed to win the nomination.

Trump exceeded polling expectations, easily exceeding 50% in all five states, and surpassing 60% in a couple of them. We've updated the interactive delegate calculator to reflect the results. 

Hillary Clinton won all but Rhode Island against Bernie Sanders. When the remaining delegates from Tuesday are allocated, she'll be within about 200 of the 2,383 needed to officially secure the nomination. The Associated Press noted last night that Clinton can lose every remaining primary by a wide margin and still capture her party’s nomination. While Sanders vowed to stay in the race, both campaigns have begun a shift in tone that recognizes that she will, in all likelihood, be the party's 2016 nominee.

Electoral Map: For those that think we are heading toward a Clinton vs. Trump election, our electoral map based on polls will let you see how that race is developing. We wouldn't put too much stock in the November polls to this point; however it certainly will be interesting to see how the map evolves if this is the match-up. Both candidates have high unfavorables, while Trump's areas of strength could yield a map quite different than we've grown accustomed to in the last several elections.


Tuesday Live Results

April 26, 2016

Updated delegate count 10:45PM

Trump sweeps all five states, winning 105 delegates, reaching 950 total. Kasich has won 5 delegates, Cruz 0

Trump has swept delegates in DE, PA, CT. 8 more delegates remain to be allocated.

Trump now only candidate that can reach 1,237 before convention

Clinton wins MD, DE, PA, CT, picking up 190 delegates thus far, surpassing 2,150.  

Sanders wins RI; he has gained 114 delegates tonight. About 80 more delegates remain to be allocated

AP: Clinton can lose every remaining primary by a wide margin and still capture her party’s nomination ow.ly/4n8o70

For detailed vote results, visit the New York Times.

 


Delegate Outlook for Tuesday's Five Primaries

April 26, 2016

The polls are open until 8PM* in the five Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states holding their primaries today. It looks to be a good day for frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Let's take a look at what that might mean for the delegate counts. Keep in mind these are rough projections; there's not much to go on at the congressional district level where a decent chunk of the delegates will be awarded. 

Republican: The image below is from our interactive delegate calculator, where you can create your own forecast of whether Trump will reach the necessary 1,237 delegates before the Republican Convention.

 

Trump starts the day with 845 delegates, with 118 at stake across the five states. If the polling is even remotely accurate, there's little doubt that Trump will win all five states, likely exceeding 50% in at least a couple of them. Each state has a somewhat different allocation methodology, leading to a variety of delegate outcomes. For details on each state's approach and more polling detail, see our Republican primary preview

Recent polling has been even more favorable for Trump. Based on that, we expect him to win in the neighborhood of 100 delegates today. This will put him within about 300 of winning the nomination. There are 54 technically unbound Pennsylvania delegates that will be directly elected by the voters today (3 in each congressional district). It is expected that a decent portion of them will support the state or respective congressional district winner. Additionally, next week's Indiana primary, awards 57 delegates on a split winner take all basis. The disposition of these 111 delegates will go a long way toward determining how likely it is that Trump reach 1,237 by the end of the primary season. 

Democrat:  Clinton is likely to win all five states today, although one recent poll in Rhode Island showed Bernie Sanders slightly ahead. Democratic delegate allocation is essentially the same in each state: Some proportional by statewide vote, others at the congressional district level. There are also a number of unbound superdelegates in each state. The table below shows the breakdown of pledged delegates in each state voting today.


Clinton is projected to grow her lead by about 50 pledged delegates today. More importantly, it takes another 384 delegates off the table. When factoring in committed superdelegates, she will likely need fewer than 20% of those remaining to win the nomination. As we noted in our Democratic primary preview, Clinton is likely to reach the magic number of 2,383 on June 7. 

* This information is believed to be accurate, but do not rely on it in deciding when to vote


Democratic Primary Preview: 384 Delegates at Stake in Five States Tuesday

April 25, 2016

This is our overview of Tuesday's Democratic primaries. We've already published one for the Republican primaries.

Democratic voters in five East Coast states head to the polls on April 26th, as Hillary Clinton looks to build on her strong showing in New York last Tuesday. As in that state, the demographics and polls point toward another good day for her, one that will likely put her within a couple hundred delegates of clinching the Democratic nomination.

Clinton will enter Tuesday's contests about 250 ahead of Sanders in pledged delegates, a lead that grows to over 700 when including committed superdelegates. Clinton picked up 11 more of these after convincing win in New York. She now leads 513-38, with 163 uncommitted. Many of these uncommitted delegates have told the AP that they will support the candidate that win the most delegates from the primary and caucus events.

384 pledged delegates will be at stake in Tuesday's 5 primaries.

A recap of where things currently stand for each contest follows, beginning with a rough delegate projection based on polling averages*. As a reminder, all Democratic primaries allocate delegates (other than superdelegates) proportionately, with some based on the statewide result, some based on congressional district, if applicable**. The poll hours, all Eastern time, are believed accurate, but you should not rely on them to vote. (It does look like the polls close at 8PM in all five states). Click/tap a state name for more details.  

Pennsylvania (189 pledged delegates) The state has almost as many delegates as Tuesday's other four contests combined, which will make it the most closely-watched event of the day. Individual polls have bounced around a bit, but they all point to a Clinton victory. It looks like it may be a bit closer than last week's New York primary, which Clinton ended up winning by 16 points. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM. 

Maryland (95) Polls here have consistently placed Clinton in the upper 50's, averaging 57% to Sanders 35%. Looks like an easy win here for Clinton. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM.

Connecticut (55) Polling has been limited here. All three surveys out in recent weeks give Clinton a single-digit lead, although the latest one, out Monday, is only 2 points, well within the margin of error.

Rhode Island (24) A poll out Monday gives Sanders a four point lead; it is the only current poll in any of the five states to show him leading. However, a separate poll out Sunday has Clinton ahead by 9. Polls close at 8PM; opening time appears to be 7AM in most of the state.

Delaware (21) The only poll, released last week, has Clinton up by 7. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM. 

If things play out roughly this way, Clinton will end the day about 300 ahead in pledged delegates. Factoring in superdelegates, she will only need about 200 more delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination. After Tuesday, the calendar gets lighter for the next several weeks, before culminating in June 7, a day that includes the huge California primary.

California polling has been pretty competitive. Additionally, there probably aren't enough delegates available before June 7 for Clinton to clinch outright (barring a commitment by most of the remaining superdelegates). Taken together, it leaves an opening for the Sanders campaign to continue until the end of the primary season should it so choose. His position could be strengthened by a win in California, although Clinton will likely clinch the nomination that day. 

* Assumes the vote in each congressional district mirrors the statewide vote. This is unlikely to be the case, but with only two candidates involved, some of the differences should offset.

** In states with only a single congressional district, a proxy is sometimes used to create a similar regional split. In Delaware, the state does this by creating four subdivisions. There is one each for Kent and Sussex County, with New Castle County split into Wilmington and the remainder.


Cruz, Kasich Team Up to Block Trump's Path to 1237 Delegates

April 25, 2016

Politico reports that "Ted Cruz and John Kasich have begun coordinating their campaign strategy to stop Donald Trump, an abrupt alliance announced Sunday night that includes Kasich quitting his efforts in Indiana and Cruz clearing a path for the Ohio governor in Oregon and New Mexico."

The Trump campaign fired back, blasting the "collusion" between the two campaigns.

==

270toWin: On its face, this deal would seem to benefit Cruz much more than Kasich, although its unclear how much overall impact it will have (or how long it will last). It might make a difference in Indiana, where recent polling shows a fairly competitive race between Trump and Cruz. That state offers 57 delegates that are winner take all (30 based on state result, 3 in each of the 9 congressional districts).

New Mexico and Oregon are much later on the primary calendar, and have smaller delegate pools that are proportionately allocated. Notably, the largest delegate prize -- California on June 7 -- is excluded. 


Public Policy: Trump Will Win Easily in PA, CT, RI; Looks Much Closer for Dems

April 25, 2016

On the eve of Tuesday's five-state primary, Public Policy Polling has released a set of polls for three of those contests. The firm surveyed Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Rhode Island.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump looks to have a very good day. He's above 50% in all three states, about 25 points ahead of his closest competitor. Trump also shows much higher favorability ratings in these three states.

These three states will account for 64 pledged delegates on Tuesday. Pennsylvania has an additional 54 unbound delegates that will be elected directly. Tuesday's other two contests, Maryland and Delaware will account for another 54 delegates. Things look pretty promising for Trump in those locations as well. Our full preview of Tuesday's Republican contests can be found here.

For the Democrats, the poll finds a mixed bag Tuesday. Hillary Clinton has a ten-point lead in Pennsylvania, while Connecticut is nearly tied. In Rhode Island, Sanders leads by four.

These results are a bit more favorable for Sanders than other recent polling, although there has not been much available outside Pennsylvania.  That said, the Keystone State has almost as many delegates as Tuesday's four other contests combined, so the poll's findings, even if exactly right, will result in a nice delegate bump for Clinton. Our full preview of Tuesday's Democratic contests will be out later Monday.


Republican Polling Update for Tuesday's East Coast Primaries

April 23, 2016

Voters in five Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states head to the polls on April 26th as the primary schedule remains on the East Coast after this past Tuesday's New York primary. As in that state, the demographics and polls point toward another good day for Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. 

Trump currently leads the Republican field with 845 delegates, nearly 300 ahead of Ted Cruz. After New York, Trump is the only candidate with a plausible path to gathering the required 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination prior to the Republican Convention. 118 pledged delegates will be up for grabs on Tuesday, with another 54 unbound delegates being elected directly (in Pennsylvania). 

A recap of where things currently stand for each contest follows, including a discussion of the delegate allocation procedure, as we understand it. The poll hours, all Eastern time, are believed accurate, but you should not rely on them to vote. (It does look like the polls close at 8PM in all five states). Click/tap a state name for more details.  

Pennsylvania The state will send 71 delegates to the Convention, although only 17 will be bound to the winner of Tuesday's statewide vote. The remaining 54 will be directly elected, three in each of the state's 18 congressional districts. These delegates are unbound, although they can make their leanings known in advance of the election. Polling points to a Trump win statewide: He's averaging in the mid 40s, with Cruz and Kasich in a tight battle for 2nd, some 20 points back. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM. 

Maryland 14 of 38 delgates will go to the statewide winner. The remaining 24 will be allocated, in groups of 3, to the winner of each of the state's eight congressional districts. Trump has led all recent polling, and is averaging 41%, 14 points ahead of Kasich, who is slightly ahead of Cruz. Trump has led every poll this year, currently averaging about 10 points over Cruz. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM.

Connecticut The state has 28 delegates. 13 of these will be based on the statewide result. If Trump exceeds 50% (he's just under that in limited polling), he'll earn those 13. Otherwise, they'll be allocated proportionately among any candidate reaching 20%. The state's five congressional districts are winner take all, 3 per district. It appears the polls are open from 6AM to 8PM. 

Rhode Island The state has 19 delegates to be allocated to those meeting a 10% threshold. There's been no recent polling; a new poll from Brown University is expected on Sunday. 13 delegates will be distributed proportionately based on the statewide vote. The other six will be based on the two congressional districts. Best as we can tell, each of the three candidates will end up with two of these. Polls close at 8PM; opening time appears to be 7AM in most of the state.

Delaware The 16 delegates go to the statewide winner. The only poll, released earlier in the week, showed Trump far ahead of the other candidates. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM. 

Taken together, it looks like Trump is positioned to pick up 90-100 of those 118 delegates on Tuesday. Use our interactive delegate calculator to see if you can get him to 1,237.


Change History: Interactive Maps for All 57 Presidential Elections Now Available

April 22, 2016

We've launched the remaining interactive historical maps. These 57 maps let you alter the course of history by changing the outcome of any prior presidential election. You can modify results, winners and election participants.

2012 2008 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988  
1984 1980 1976 1972 1968 1964 1960  
1956 1952 1948 1944 1940 1936 1932  
1928 1924 1920 1916 1912 1908 1904  
1900 1896 1892 1888 1884 1880 1876  
1872 1868 1864 1860 1856 1852 1848  
1844 1840 1836 1832 1828 1824 1820
1816 1812 1808 1804 1800 1796 1792 1789

The first competitive election:

The first election decided in House of Representatives:

 

Abraham Lincoln is elected on the eve of Civil War:

 

Florida, Florida, Florida:



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