Election News

Cook Political Report is out with its initial look at the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives. Subscribers can read the full analysis by David Wasserman.

Republicans start with a narrow 222-213 margin, setting the stage for another competitive battle for control. The initial ratings show 203 safe or likely Republican seats vs. 190 for Democrats. That leaves 42 highly competitive districts, including 20 pure toss-ups.

Wasserman notes that Republicans "have history on their side: despite the House flipping partisan control five times since 1994, it hasn't flipped in a presidential cycle since 1952." An additional benefit to the party may come if another redistricting takes place in North Carolina and Ohio, "where temporary maps were used for the 2022 cycle by court order. In both states, Republicans captured state supreme court majorities in November, potentially allowing GOP-led legislatures to pass fresh gerrymanders for 2024." 

This Tuesday, we're tracking six legislative special elections, including two runoffs. Four of these are in Georgia, with one each in Mississippi and Pennsylvania.

Georgia

Polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern Time. 

State Senate District 11

Republicans hold a 32-23 majority over Democrats in the Georgia State Senate. Members serve two-year terms, with the next regular elections in 2024.

Republicans dominate the Tennessee State House, holding 75 of 99 seats. There are 23 Democrats along with one vacancy. Members serve two-year terms, with the next regular elections in November, 2024.

District 86 is in the far western part of the state, including portions of Memphis. Democrat Barbara Cooper died at 93 in October, 2022. She was posthumously reelected in November by a 73% to 27% margin over an independent challenger. Cooper had served in the House since 1996.

Ten candidates are on the Democratic primary ballot to succeed Cooper. This includes Cooper's daughter, Tanya.

The 2024 Senate Interactive Map is now live. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or independents currently associated with the party.

Democrats hold the majority, controlling 51 of 100 seats as the 118th Congress gets underway. For Republicans to retake control in 2025, they will need a net gain of two seats or one seat along with a victory in the 2024 presidential election.

Independents: The Senate's three independents are up for election in 2024. Along with the usual major party options, the 2024 map allows you to choose an independent in Arizona, Maine, and Vermont. A set of purple gradients is used. Separately, you can elect how to count each independent for purposes of determining the party in control.

Four legislative special elections - three in Virginia, and one in Mississippi - are being contested Tuesday, January 10.

Polls close at 7:00 PM in Virginia and 8:00 PM in Mississippi (all times Eastern).

Virginia State Senate District 7

Michigan Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow will not seek a fifth term in 2024, she announced Thursday. 

Inspired by a new generation of leaders, I have decided to pass the torch in the U.S. Senate. I am announcing today that I will not seek re-election and will leave the U.S. Senate at the end of my term on January 3, 2025.

Read my full statement:https://t.co/qYJE6lyRJ3 pic.twitter.com/Fq659Aevs0

— Sen. Debbie Stabenow (@SenStabenow) January 5, 2023

Stabenow is the second Senator to retire this cycle, joining Republican Mike Braun, who is running for Indiana governor.

Inside Election's Erin Covey has this overview of who might try to succeed Stabenow. Covey notes that "it’s likely to be one of the top races in the country for the entire cycle, with the presidential race at the top of the ballot having an impact on the Senate winner."

The 2024 Senate Map

Georgia kicks off the 2023 special election calendar Tuesday. Republican David Ralston, the powerful long-time House Speaker, died in November, shortly after announcing he would be stepping down from that role due to health issues. 

House District 7 is in a very conservative part of North Georgia. That is reflected on the special election ballot, where five Republicans are looking to succeed Ralston. The candidates include his widow, Sheree. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, the top two finishers will meet in a January 31 runoff.

Polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern Time.

The 2024 House Interactive Map is now available. Republicans took control of the House in the 2022 midterms, and will hold a 222-213 partisan edge when the new Congress is seated on January 3. Interestingly, that total is a mirror of the 222-213 Democratic margin prior to the election.

Note that the Democratic total includes a vacancy in Virginia's 4th congressional district, which Democrats are favored to hold in a February 21 special election. Until then, and barring any other vacancies, the GOP will hold a 222-212 margin.

The following two Library Maps are initially available. Click on either of them for an interactive version.

Democrats selected Virginia state Sen. Jennifer McClellan as their nominee for a February special election to fill the vacancy in the state's 4th congressional district. McClellan won 85% of the vote in Tuesday's party-run primary, which included three other hopefuls. After hand-counting the vote, full results were released early Thursday morning.

McClellan will be favored in the February 21 special election for this Richmond area district. A win would make her the state's first Black woman in Congress.

The 2023-2024 Interactive Governor Map is now available. 14 states will hold gubernatorial elections through 2024. Three of those - Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi - will take place in 2023.

Nine new governors elected in 2022 will take office through January 18, at which time the partisan composition will be 26 Republicans and 24 Democrats. 

The following Library Maps are initially available. Click on any of them for an interactive version.