Election News

In addition to the initiative below, there are two elections in Florida today. Live results >

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On Tuesday, voters in Oklahoma will determine whether recreational marijuana should be legal in the state.

There is one year until the Super Tuesday presidential primaries on March 5, 2024.

In addition to the elections below, there is a statewide ballot initiative in Oklahoma on the legalization of recreational marijuana.  Live Results >

Returning to the here and now, it's a quiet week on the election front. We'll have results for two Florida elections on Tuesday. Polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern Time.

This Tuesday, we're following the mayoral election in Chicago. There are also three State House special elections in Connecticut, and a State House special runoff election in Georgia.

Chicago Mayor

Mayor Lori Lightfoot faces a large field of challengers Tuesday as she seeks a second term running the nation's third largest city. Given the size of the field, and the number of credible candidates, an April 4 runoff is all but certain. What isn't certain is whether the incumbent will make it out of the first round.

Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan announced Monday that she is running for U.S. Senate in 2024. Slotkin is looking to succeed her fellow Democrat, Sen. Debbie Stabenow who is retiring after four terms in office.

Slotkin was first elected to the 8th congressional district in 2018, defeating incumbent Republican Mike Bishop by about 4%. Narrow reelection wins followed again in 2020 and 2022. Her 2022 run was in the 7th district, the best fit after redistricting. This competitive district, in the southcentral part of the state, includes Lansing, the state capital.

The team at Sabato's Crystal Ball is out with their initial ratings for the 2024 House elections. You can read the full analysis or click the image below for an interactive map of the ratings.

After two consecutive elections resulting in narrow majorities, the forecaster calls the race for the House a toss-up. It sees 190 safe GOP seats, with 174 solidly for the Democrats. Adding in the seats rated 'likely' brings us to a Republican edge of 202-189. That leaves just 44 highly competitive seats, rated 'leaning' or 'toss-up'.

Tuesday brings a wide variety of elections, some scheduled, some special. Highlights include a congressional special election in Virginia and a regular primary for a seat on the closely-divided Wisconsin Supreme Court.

U.S. House Special Election

Virginia Congressional District 4

The only vacancy in the U.S. House will be filled via this special election. Republicans currently hold a 222-212 partisan edge. Select the 'Current House' button on the 2024 House election map to see that breakdown.

This district includes the state capital, Richmond, and runs southward to the North Carolina border. Democrat Donald McEachin died in late November, after having been easily reelected to a fourth term. 

Republicans hold a sizeable 69-33 edge over Democrats in the Louisiana House of Representatives. There are two independents, along with the vacancy in District 93. Members serve four-year terms; the next regularly scheduled elections are in November.

District 93 is based in New Orleans, including the French Quarter. While normally that would be a 'nice to know' factoid, it may have some impact on who wins here. This is the big weekend of Mardi Gras, with parades and other events scheduled through the day. It could be a logistical nightmare for voters who try and cast ballots on Election Day itself. According to a spokesperson for the House Speaker, the date was the only one available that allows time for a runoff before the start of the next legislative session.

Democrat Royce Duplessis resigned in December after winning a special election for State Senate District 5.

California Sen. Dianne Feinstein said Tuesday that she will not seek reelection in 2024. The decision was widely anticipated, so much so that two U.S. House Democrats have been in the race to succeed her for several weeks, with a third member expected to announce later this month.  

Each of us was sent here to solve problems. That’s what I’ve done for the last 30 years, and that’s what I plan to do for the next two years. My thanks to the people of California for allowing me to serve them.https://t.co/J1DTR8kNP2

— Senator Dianne Feinstein (@SenFeinstein) February 14, 2023

Feinstein, 89, has served in the Senate for over 30 years, winning a special election in 1992 over Republican John Seymour. Seymour had been appointed by Gov. Pete Wilson, who had resigned from the Senate after he defeated - wait for it - Dianne Feinstein in the 1990 gubernatorial election. 

Seymour was the last California Republican to serve in the U.S. Senate, and that likely won't change with Feinstein's departure. 

Democratic Reps. Katie Porter (CA-47) and Adam Schiff (CA-30) have already declared. Their colleague, Barbara Lee (CA-12) is expected to launch her bid later this month. Schiff has the backing of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is entering the 2024 presidential race, becoming the first prominent Republican challenger to former President Donald Trump.

Her campaign released a launch video:

This Tuesday, we're tracking three special elections in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Democrats appeared to gain control by gaining ten seats in the 2022 elections, giving the party a narrow 102-101 partisan edge. However, all three Pittsburgh-area seats were previously held by Democrats, so the vacancies gave the GOP a temporary 101-99 margin. This complicated organizational efforts when the new House was seated last month.

While it seems somewhat unlikely given the partisan lean of these districts, Republicans can gain control by winning one of these three special elections.