Live Results: Special Election in MN-01; Primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin

Four states hold primaries this Tuesday. There is also a special election to fill a U.S. House vacancy in Minnesota. 

Results for some of the more interesting elections are on this page. Use the links below to see all results. Latest poll closing (Eastern Time) appears below the state name. If you are voting in one of these locations, check with your polling place as the hours may differ.

Connecticut >> Minnesota >> Vermont >> Wisconsin >> 
8:00 PM  9:00 PM 7:00 PM 9:00 PM

 

U.S. House Special General Election

Minnesota District 1

Before we get to the primaries, there is a special election to fill the vacancy in Minnesota's 1st Congressional District. The winner will complete the term of former Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn, who died in February.

In the May primary, businessman Jeff Ettinger easily won the Democratic nomination. For the Republicans, former State Rep. Brad Finstad edged out State Rep. Jeremy Munson. Although Hagedorn only narrowly won his seat in 2018 and again in 2020, Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden here by 10 points. That margin might better reflect the partisan lean of the district. As such, Finstad is favored in the special election.

Finstad and Munson will also be on the ballot for a rematch in the regular District 1 GOP primary.

U.S. Senate

Seats in Connecticut, Vermont, and Wisconsin are up for election this year. Only Wisconsin's race looks to be competitive in November. 

Connecticut (Republican)

Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal was renominated for a third term at the party's convention in May. Three Republicans are vying for the party's nomination. Donald Trump stepped in with a last-minute endorsement of businesswoman Leora Levy. The other prominent candidate is former State House Minority Leader Themis Klarides, who did not vote for Trump's reelection. 

Regardless of which Republican advances, Blumenthal is favored to win in November. 

Vermont: First elected in 1974, Democratic Sen. Pat Leahy is retiring after eight terms. Despite the deep blue lean of the state today, he is the only Democrat that Vermonters have ever elected to the Senate. That will almost certainly change in November. There are three Democrats looking to succeed Leahy, with Rep. Peter Welch the overwhelming favorite.

Wisconsin (Democratic)

Republican Ron Johnson is seeking a third term. He faces a minor primary challenge. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is expected to be the nominee after all his prominent opponents withdrew and endorsed him in the closing weeks of the campaign. Those candidates - State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson - remain on the ballot.

Looking ahead to November, Barnes led Johnson by two points, well within the margin of error, in a late June Marquette poll.

Governor

All four states have gubernatorial elections this year.

Connecticut: Nominees were chosen at party conventions. Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont is seeking a 2nd term. The GOP nominee is businessman Bob Stefanowski. This is a rematch of the 2018 election, which Lamont narrowly won, 49% to 46%.

Minnesota: Democratic Gov. Tim Walz is seeking a second term. He faces nominal primary opposition. On the Republican side, former State Sen. Scott Jensen was endorsed at the party's May convention. He has two nominal primary opponents. Most forecasters rate the general election Leans or Likely Democratic.

Vermont: One of two states (New Hampshire is the other) where gubernatorial terms are two years in length. Republican Gov. Phil Scott faces nominal primary opposition and will be a heavy favorite in November. Nonprofit excecutive Brenda Siegel will be the Democratic nominee.

Wisconsin (Republican)

Wisconsin is expected to hold the most competitive general election gubernatorial election among these four states. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has no primary opposition as he seeks a second term.

There are four Republicans vying for the nomination, the frontrunners are former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch and businessman Tim Michels. The wealthy Michels was a late entrant to the race in April, spending heavily via self-funding. He also won the endorsement of Trump. 

The primary looks like a true toss-up. The two recent public polls were well within the margin of error.

With current Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes running for Senate, Evers will have a new running mate this year. That will most likely be State Assemblywoman Sara Rodriguez. In Wisconsin, lieutenant governor nominees are chosen in separate primaries, after which the two run together as a single ticket for the general election. 

U.S. House

Minnesota District 1 (Republican)

As discussed above, this is a rematch of the May special election primary that Finstad won by about 400 votes. After conceding, Munson had said he would endorse Finstad and not run, but switched course and entered on the last day of filing.

While this primary is being conducted with redistricted boundaries, there is about a 90% overlap between the old and new version of District 1, so it is largely the same set of voters that nominated Finstad. It would be a bit surprising if he were to win the special election but lose this primary.

Minnesota District 5 (Democratic)

'Squad' member Ilhan Omar faces a centrist primary challenge from former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels.

Vermont At-Large (Democratic)

Eight-term Democratic Rep. Peter Welch is retiring to run for U.S. Senate. Vermont is one of six states with a single at-large district. It is also the only state that has never sent a woman to Congress. That will almost certainly change this year.

The leading Democratic candidates are State Senate President Pro Tem Becca Balint and Lt. Gov. Molly Gray. Balint appears to be the frontrunner after consolidating progressive support behind her, including an endorsement last month from Sen. Bernie Sanders.

The winner will be an overwhelming favorite over whichever Republican emerges as the nominee.

Wisconsin District 3 (Republican)

Democrat Ron Kind is retiring after narrowly winning a 13th term in 2020 against Derrick Van Orden, a retired Navy SEAL. Van Orden is unopposed for the GOP nomination. Four Democrats are looking to replace Kind. Most forecasters rate the general election 'Leans Republican', making Van Orden a slight favorite to flip the district as the general election gets underway. 

State Assembly

Wisconsin District 63 (Republican)

Last week in Arizona, State House Speaker Rusty Bowers lost his primary bid for State Senate. Bowers had been dismissive of Trump's efforts to overturn his narrow 2020 loss in the state. As a result, Trump endorsed former State Sen. David Farnsworth who crushed Bowers by 65% to 35%.

This week Trump is looking to oust Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos for pretty much the same reason in another state he narrowly lost. The former president has endorsed Adam Steen

Upcoming

  • August 13
    • Hawaii Primary
  • August 16
    • Alaska Primary
    • Wyoming Primary
    • Alaska U.S. House At-Large District Special Election
  • August 23
    • Florida Primary
    • New York Primary
      • U.S. House and State Senate; other primaries were June 28
    • Oklahoma Primary Runoffs
    • New York U.S. House Districts 19 and 23 Special Elections
  • September 6
    • Massachusetts Primary
  • September 13
    • Delaware Primary
    • New Hampshire Primary
    • Rhode Island Primary
  • November 8
    • Election Day
comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Florida Democratic Rep. Ted Deutch Resigning at Close of Business Friday

Early departure had previously been announced; Deutch is taking a job as CEO of the American Jewish Committee

Polling Update: September 27

A list of polls added yesterday or today

Introducing the 2022 House Simulator

Who will control the House after the midterm elections? Use this tool to simulate the outcome and see trends over time.

Uncontested: The 36 House Districts With Only One Major Party on the Ballot

17 incumbents are unopposed, while 13 others face a 3rd party opponent. Six elections are between two Democrats

Overview and Live Results: Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island Primaries

The outcome of several GOP primaries in New Hampshire may impact how competitive those races are in November