A First Look at the August 2 Primaries

Five states1 1Separately, Ohio will hold primaries for State Legislature. These were rescheduled from May due to redistricting delays. hold their statewide primaries next Tuesday, August 2. It is one of the more important remaining dates on the 2022 calendar.

Here's a brief overview of some of the primaries to watch. The Consensus column reflects the current rating of the November general election for congressional and gubernatorial races.

Arizona

Office Primary Consensus Comments
Senate R Toss-up Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is seeking a full term after winning 2020 special election. Donald Trump endorsed businessman Blake Masters in early June, propelling him to frontrunner status in subsequent polling. However, businessman Jim Lamon has closed the gap in some more recent surveys. Attorney General Mark Brnovich is also on the ballot.
Governor R Toss-up Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is term-limited. The Democratic nominee is expected to be Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. The GOP contest features Trump-endorsed former news anchor Kari Lake and businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, who is endorsed by Mike Pence. 
Secy. of State R   Incumbent Katie Hobbs (D) is running for governor. The general election is expected to be competitive. Two Democrats are vying for the nomination. Most focus will be on the GOP side, which includes a proxy war between Trump and Ducey.  Trump has endorsed State Rep. Mark Finchem, a proponent of election fraud, while Ducey is backing businessman Beau Lane. There are two other candidates on the ballot, with a recent poll showed nearly 3 in 4 GOP voters undecided.
Atty. Gen. R   Incumbent Mark Brnovich (R) is term-limited and is running for Senate. Six are seeking the GOP nomination; Trump has endorsed former prosecutor Abraham Hamadeh. The Democratic nominee for this competitive general election race will be Kristin Mayes.
House 1 R Likely GOP Rep. David Schweikert (R) is being challenged by Elijah Norton, a self-funding businessman.
House 2 R Leans GOP Seven Republicans are seeking the nomination to challenge Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D) in a district that shifted to the right in redistricting.
House 4 R Leans DEM Another district that shifted to the right in redistricting, although it still leans Democratic. Rep. Greg Stanton (D) will meet the winner of a five-person GOP primary.
House 6 Both Leans GOP Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is retiring. There are competitive primaries in both parties.

Kansas

In addition to the race listed below, there is a question on all ballots that will let voters decide whether to amend the State Constitution to specify that it does not contain a right to abortion. It is the first time abortion has been put in front of voters since the Supreme Court's decision in the Dobbs case.

Office Primary Consensus Comments
Atty. Gen. R   Incumbent Derek Schmidt (R) is running for governor and expected to be the party's nominee. Three are seeking the nomination to succeed him, including former Secy. of State Kris Kobach, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2018 and Senate in 2020. A Kobach nomination - he leads the limited polling - keeps the door slightly ajar for Democratic nominee Chris Mann despite the deep red lean of the state

Michigan

Office Primary Consensus Comments
Governor R Leans DEM Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is seeking a second term. Her path to reelection was made somewhat easier when several leading GOP candidates were disqualified from the primary ballot. Five did qualify for Tuesday's election.
House 3 R Leans GOP Rep. Peter Meijer, one of 10 House Republicans to vote for impeachment, is at risk of being ousted by Trump-endorsed candidate John Gibbs, a former Assistant HUD Secretary. A Gibbs win would likely improve the prospects of Hillary Scholten (D), who lost to Meijer by six points as the 2020 nominee. 
House 8 R Toss-up Three Republicans are looking to challenge Rep. Daniel Kildee (D) in this highly competitive district.
House 10 D Leans GOP Open after redistricting, this race slightly favors the GOP. John James, who twice ran unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate, is the party's likely nominee. Five Democrats are vying for the opposing nomination. 
House 11 D Likely DEM Reps. Andy Levin and Haley Stevens will face each other in a member vs. member contest created by redistricting. While several incumbents are at risk on August 2, one is guaranteed to lose their job here.
House 13 D Safe DEM  Brenda Lawrence (D) is retiring, opening the race up to a large field seeking the nomination for this Detroit-area seat. The winner will be a heavy favorite in November.

Missouri

Office Primary Consensus Comments
Senate Both Likely GOP Sen. Roy Blunt (R) is retiring, with a field of about 20 on the primary ballot looking to succeed him. The nominee will likely be one of Attorney General Eric Schmitt, former Gov. Eric Greitens, or Rep. Vicky Hartzler (MO-04). Schmitt has moved into the lead in recent polling. Three are vying for the Democratic nomination, although the general election is likely out of reach for the party unless the controversial Greitens emerges as nominee.
House 4 R Safe GOP As noted above, incumbent Rep. Vicky Hartzler is running for Senate. Seven are competing for the GOP nomination; the winner will be heavily favored in November.
House 7 R Safe GOP Same scenario as District 4. Incumbent Billy Long is also in the Senate primary, although he hasn't gotten much traction. Eight are seeking the GOP nomination.

Washington

The state holds all-party primaries, with the top two finishers advancing to the general election.

Office Primary Consensus Comments
Senate   Likely DEM Sen. Patty Murray (D) and nurse Tiffany Smiley (R) are expected to finish 1-2 in a large primary field. A few polls earlier this year showed Murray ahead in the general election by high single-digits, prompting some forecasters to move it out of the 'safe' category. However, more recent polls show Murray with closer to a 20% lead.
House 3   Likely GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler is seeking a 7th term. One of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, she has drawn several challengers from the right, including Joe Kent, endorsed by the former president. There are also two Democrats on the ballot.
House 4   Safe GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse (R), who also supported impeachment, has drawn a challenge from Trump-endorsed Loren Culp, who lost to Jay Inslee (D) in the 2020 gubernatorial race. There are four other Republicans and one Democrat on the ballot.
House 8   Toss-up Rep. Kim Schrier (D) is seeking a third term in the state's most competitive general election district. She is expected to advance, with 10 candidates vying for the second spot.

 

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