Interactive Map of FiveThirtyEight Forecast now Available

FiveThirtyEight launched its 2018 House Forecast late last week. There are three versions of the model, described more fully in this overview of the model methodology

An interactive map of the 'Classic' version of the forecast is below.  At a high level, this version couples available polling with numerous fundamental factors to derive a probability of victory for the individual candidates in each race. We group those probabilities as FiveThirtyEight does, so that our map is consistent* with theirs.

Click or tap the map to view the ranges and to use it as a starting point for your own 2018 House forecast.

 

We hope to update the interactive map daily. As the FiveThirtyEight model runs "every time new data is available", there will occasionally be differences between the two. See the timestamp below the map for the date and time of the last update.

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse Expected to Resign; Sole Finalist to be President at University of Florida

Gov. Pete Ricketts would appoint a replacement who will serve until a 2024 special election

Florida Democratic Rep. Ted Deutch Resigning at Close of Business Friday

Early departure had previously been announced; Deutch is taking a job as CEO of the American Jewish Committee

Polling Update: September 27

A list of polls added yesterday or today

Introducing the 2022 House Simulator

Who will control the House after the midterm elections? Use this tool to simulate the outcome and see trends over time.

Uncontested: The 36 House Districts With Only One Major Party on the Ballot

17 incumbents are unopposed, while 13 others face a 3rd party opponent. Six elections are between two Democrats