August 22, 2018
FiveThirtyEight launched its 2018 House Forecast late last week. There are three versions of the model, described more fully in this overview of the model methodology.
An interactive map of the 'Classic' version of the forecast is below. At a high level, this version couples available polling with numerous fundamental factors to derive a probability of victory for the individual candidates in each race. We group those probabilities as FiveThirtyEight does, so that our map is consistent* with theirs.
Click or tap the map to view the ranges and to use it as a starting point for your own 2018 House forecast.
* We hope to update the interactive map daily. As the FiveThirtyEight model runs "every time new data is available", there will occasionally be differences between the two. See the timestamp below the map for the date and time of the last update.
He's likely to cross the threshold when this week's remaining delegates are awarded. However, if he comes up short, he'll almost certainly lock it up when Georgia polls close next Tuesday.
Nine-term term incumbent becomes 2nd member to lose primary in 2020
On one of the busier days of the reshuffled calendar, Joe Biden has a chance to clinch the nomination. However, a late change in Pennsylvania may delay that opportunity.
An increasingly blue state overall, the Cascade mountain range marks both a physical and political separation between largely liberal and conservative populations.
At the presidential level, the Magnolia State has voted for only one Democratic nominee since 1960. The population demographics drive remarkably consistent results every four years.