March 26, 2018
Pennsylvania Rep. Ryan Costello announced his retirement from Congress at the end of the year. The 2nd term Republican's path to reelection became more challenging with the state's recent court-ordered redistricting. The prior 6th district went for Hillary Clinton by about 0.6% in 2016, while the redrawn boundaries voted for her by 9%.
Costello's timing is not helpful to his party's chances to hold the seat. With the state's filing deadline having passed March 20th, the only other Republican on the May 15th primary ballot is a relative unknown. However, if Costello remains on the primary ballot and wins, the state party could select a replacement for him. Neither scenario is ideal. Sabato's Crystal Ball has changed the district rating from toss-up to likely Democratic.
There are now 53 current members of the U.S. House not seeking re-election in 2018.
Kansas Republicans opted for nominees with better general election prospects, while a dynastic Missouri Democratic congressman was defeated
After a two week break, August 4 brings us primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington
Biden is likely to prevail here, but a competitive electoral vote available in the state's 2nd congressional district - won by Trump in 2016 - will draw considerable attention.
See how often a state votes with the election winner and also which states most frequently put the winner across the 270 electoral vote threshold.
Reliably Republican at the presidential level through most of the 20th century, it has voted Democratic since 2008 and looks fairly safe for Joe Biden in 2020