New Poll Finds Tight 3-Way Battle in Arizona Republican Senate Race

A new poll from OH Predictive Insights shows a very competitive 3-way race for the Republican nomination in the Arizona U.S. Senate race. Rep. Martha McSally leads with 31%, just ahead of former Sheriff Joe Arpaio at 29%. Former State Sen. Kelli Ward is in 3rd at 25%. In a mid-November poll by the same firm, Ward held an 8 point lead over McSally; Arpaio was not included in that survey. 

McSally is the establishment favorite, and her number is little changed from November. Arpaio's share came primarily from Ward; this makes sense in that they both will appeal to many of the same voters. It is also notable that Arpaio & Ward's combined share exceeds 50%, well ahead of McSally. This indicates that a three-way race all the way to the August 28th primary may make McSally's path to the nomination easier than if Arpaio or Ward drop out at some point and endorse the other. 

Arpaio just announced his entry to the race yesterday, with McSally expected to officially join the race Friday.

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Sen. Mike Braun to Run for Indiana Governor in 2024

The freshman Republican will attempt to succeed termed-out Gov. Eric Holcomb

Virginia Democratic Rep. Donald McEachin Dies at 61

He had been elected to a fourth term in Congress earlier this month

Alaska Ranked Choice Runoff Results

The tabulation will determine winners in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House races

House Update: Four Seats Uncalled; GOP Majority Will Have 220-222 Seats

The outcome of two of the races is all but certain, the other two - in California - could go either way

Republicans Clinch House Majority; Divided Government Returns to DC in January

It will be a narrow majority; eight seats remain to be called