September 14, 2016
Donald Trump is within three points in Maine, according to a new poll released by Colby College & Boston Globe in conjunction with SurveyUSA. The poll showed Trump with a ten point lead in Maine's 2nd Congressional District.
Maine is one of only two states to partially allocate its electoral votes based on the popular vote results in each congressional district. While this approach, established in advance of the 1972 election, has never resulted in an electoral vote split, that may change in 2016. Polling of the state has been limited, but the averages point toward Clinton winning the state, with Trump winning the 2nd district. In that case, Trump would earn one of the state's four electoral votes. This is now reflected in the electoral map based on polls. UPDATE: A late August poll surfaced a few hours after this article was written that had Clinton leading in ME-02. Trump still leads by several points in that district, but with the average difference within 5 points, it is reclassified as a toss-up.
Maine last voted Republican in 1988. Barack Obama won the state by over 15 points in both 2008 and 2012.
At the presidential level, the Magnolia State has voted for only one Democratic nominee since 1960. The population demographics drive remarkably consistent results every four years.
Rescheduled from April 4, this party primary was conducted exclusively by mail
15 seats were updated, 7 of which moved to safe for the November elections
This far out, polling may be of limited predictive value, but it will become more and more relevant as November draws closer
Having a long history of conducting elections by mail, the state was able to keep its original May 19 primary date. Live results for contested presidential and congressional contests