August 15, 2016
The August 15 update* to the Consensus Pundit Electoral Map gives Hillary Clinton 279 electoral votes to 191 for Donald Trump; 68 electoral votes in four states are seen as true toss-ups.
The main changes from the prior map were to move Virginia and New Hampshire from toss-up to leaning Clinton. This was enough to push Clinton across the 270 electoral vote threshold for the first time. Several red states also became more competitive, with Kansas and South Carolina moving from safe to likely Trump, Missouri from likely to leaning Trump.
Click the map above to use it as a starting point for your own 2016 forecast. You can also review the individual forecasts (links above the map) that make up the Consensus Map.
* This article was first published based on updates as of early Monday, August 15. Subsequent updates that morning led to additional modifications of the map. The article and image were updated to take these changes into account.
The forecaster sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election
After swinging sharply to Donald Trump in 2016, the state is among the most competitive in 2020. A closely-contested Senate race may help determine control of that chamber.
Currently at 233 seats - 218 needed - Democrats have a high probability of retaining control after the 2020 election.
The Sunshine State's competitiveness and large electoral bounty will once again play a pivotal role in the 2020 election.
Changes made to the electoral map, as well as to individual races for Senate, House and Governor.