Who Will Win the California Dem. Primary? 6 Days Out, Polls Tell a Conflicting Story

June 1, 2016

Six days out, polls say the California Democratic primary is either tied or Hillary Clinton leads by double-digits. Not much in-between. 

An NBC News/WSJ/Marist poll out Tuesday has Clinton up by just two on Bernie Sanders, well within the polls margin of error. This is consistent with a PPIC poll from last week, also showing Clinton up two. However, two other polls in recent days show Clinton up from 13 to 18 points.

The 270toWin polling average gives Clinton a lead of about 9 points. Unclear how useful an average is in this case.  

Regardless of how California turns out, Clinton will easily surpass the required 2,383 delegates (including committed superdelegates) next Tuesday. She is expected to arrive at the Philadelphia convention with a lead of about 300 pledged delegates, making a case against those superdelegates flipping their position. That said, a Sanders victory here would certainly give him momentum to push his policies at the convention. 

California's 475 pledged delegates are the largest number for any state. New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana and both Dakotas also hold events on June 7th. In total, it is the most delegate-rich day outside Super Tuesday for the Democrats