Who Will Win the California Dem. Primary? 6 Days Out, Polls Tell a Conflicting Story

Six days out, polls say the California Democratic primary is either tied or Hillary Clinton leads by double-digits. Not much in-between. 

An NBC News/WSJ/Marist poll out Tuesday has Clinton up by just two on Bernie Sanders, well within the polls margin of error. This is consistent with a PPIC poll from last week, also showing Clinton up two. However, two other polls in recent days show Clinton up from 13 to 18 points.

 

The 270toWin polling average gives Clinton a lead of about 9 points. Unclear how useful an average is in this case.  

Regardless of how California turns out, Clinton will easily surpass the required 2,383 delegates (including committed superdelegates) next Tuesday. She is expected to arrive at the Philadelphia convention with a lead of about 300 pledged delegates, making a case against those superdelegates flipping their position. That said, a Sanders victory here would certainly give him momentum to push his policies at the convention. 

California's 475 pledged delegates are the largest number for any state. New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana and both Dakotas also hold events on June 7th. In total, it is the most delegate-rich day outside Super Tuesday for the Democrats

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Live Results: Primary Day in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Oregon, Idaho, and Kentucky

The largest primary day thus far in 2022 contains a number of interesting races for Senate, Governor, and House

Live Results: May 17 Legislative Special Elections

Voters will fill vacancies in Pennsylvania and South Carolina, while voters in Oregon will choose nominees for a State Senate opening

Live Results: Mayoral Primaries in Charlotte, Greensboro, Lexington, and Louisville

Voters in four of the nation's 100 largest cities will select nominees

Locate and View your New Congressional District

This new feature lets you compare congressional districts before and after redistricting for any street address

New York GOP Rep. Tom Reed Resigns from Congress

He had previously announced he would not run; leaving early to join a lobbying firm