February 17, 2016
Public Policy Polling has released the findings of Democratic polls conducted in 9 states that will hold primaries on Super Tuesday, as well as Louisiana (March 5), Michigan and Mississippi (March 8).
Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders in 9 of those states, including 8 by large margins of over 20 points. Oklahoma is essentially tied (Clinton leads by 2) and Sanders is up in two New England states, including his home state of Vermont where he gets 86% support.
The 9 Super Tuesday primary states have 835 delegates up for grabs, 17.5% of the Democratic total. It is worth noting that Democratic Party allocations are proportional (some statewide, some by Congressional District), so Sanders should still receive some delegates even where he loses by 20 points or more. On the other hand, with a 15% Party minimum threshold, it is possible that Clinton will receive none of the Vermont delegates.
Louisiana (59 delegates), Michigan (147) and Mississippi (41) were also included in the survey, bringing the total delegates in the surveyed states to 1,082, about 45% of the 2,382 needed to nominate.
Colorado, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota and Nebraska will hold caucus events (which are often just the first step in the delegate awarding process) in this same calendar period. These states were not surveyed.
Updated every two hours until election day, this map will reflect the probabilistic model used by fivethirtyeight
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