270toWin Redesign

Final Iowa Polling Averages

February 1, 2016

The polling is (should be) done, and the vote takes place tonight at the Iowa caucuses. 

Republicans: Donald Trump has led in all recent polls, averaging a four point margin over Ted Cruz in the last five polls. Rubio has been gaining some momentum in recent surveys, although the 'gold star' Iowa poll out over the weekend had him well back of Cruz and Trump. It wouldn't be terribly surprising if there was a very close 3-way battle tonight; perhaps with Trump, Cruz and Rubio finishing within 5% of each other.

Democrats: Polls have varied widely in this race, although many of the most recent ones have shown a slight lead for Hillary Clinton. It appears that turnout for the Sanders campaign will be crucial in determining whether the Vermont Senator can score an important early win. Either way, it is looking good for Sanders in next week's New Hampshire primary. A new poll out this AM has him up by 31 points over Clinton.

 

 

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Rep. Ted Yoho of Florida Won't Run in 2020

Will honor pledge to only serve four terms in Congress

Andrew Yang Qualifies for Final Presidential Debate of 2019

He's the seventh candidate to make the December 19 debate stage

The Road to 270: Oklahoma

The fourth in a weekly series that will cover each state's political landscape leading up to the 2020 presidential election

Introducing the 2020 Democratic Delegate Calculator

The road to 1,990 pledged delegates begins in Iowa on February 3. See how the candidates are doing based on polling.

Rep. George Holding to Retire; First Casualty of Redrawn Congressional Maps

Redistricting has made the North Carolina 2nd district a safely Democratic seat