November 19, 2015
There are still 14 Republicans vying for the party's 2016 nomination, but four seem to be preferred by the majority of Republican voters, based on most ecent polls. At the top, 'outsiders' Donald Trump continues to hold a small lead over Ben Carson, now about 5 points in the 270toWin average. Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are basically tied for 3rd, with support averaging in the low double-digits.
Two polls out today, from Bloomberg and Public Policy, maintain these trends.
Looking past the top four, Jeb Bush seems to be in his own grouping, well back of Rubio and Cruz, but well ahead of the five candidates averaging around 3%.
With the holiday season upon us, the race for the nomination may quiet down for a few weeks with fewer polls and only one debate scheduled (December 15 in Las Vegas). As a result, absent any major gaffes, the relative position of the candidates may not change much until the race really kicks into high gear in early January, preceding the first primary/caucus events in early February.