September 20, 2015
A new CNN | ORC poll is our first look at the Republican field post-debate. This survey was conducted entirely after the September 16 event. In the table below, we compare this poll with the prior CNN | ORC survey, released September 10.
When comparing the two polls:
- Fiorina and Rubio were the big winners. Both were at 3% prior to the debate, now in double digits. Fiorina's 12 point gain has put her in 2nd place.
- Trump remains well ahead of the field, but saw a 25% reduction in support from 32% to 24%.
- Carson lost 5 points and now is tightly bunched with Fiorina and Rubio. Along with Trump, all these candidates exceeded 10%, vs. only 2 at that level in the prior poll
- Walker also lost 5 points -- his only 5 points -- and has fallen to the bottom of the pack. Before the political outsiders came along, he and Bush (who held steady at 9%) were seen as favorites for the nomination.
- Speaking of those outsiders, The combined total of Trump, Fiorina and Carson, none of whom have held political office, was 53%, virtually unchanged (although redistributed) from the 54% total of 10 days ago.
He's likely to cross the threshold when this week's remaining delegates are awarded. However, if he comes up short, he'll almost certainly lock it up when Georgia polls close next Tuesday.
Nine-term term incumbent becomes 2nd member to lose primary in 2020
On one of the busier days of the reshuffled calendar, Joe Biden has a chance to clinch the nomination. However, a late change in Pennsylvania may delay that opportunity.
An increasingly blue state overall, the Cascade mountain range marks both a physical and political separation between largely liberal and conservative populations.
At the presidential level, the Magnolia State has voted for only one Democratic nominee since 1960. The population demographics drive remarkably consistent results every four years.