2020 Battleground 270

This isn't a popularity contest™

Each day, we run 25,000 simulations with the model. On this page, we display the most recent day’s results. This lets us see the full range of plausible range of electoral college outcomes, as well as the current probabilities of victory in each state.

Election Winner

Percentage of wins for each candidate

Aug 11
Biden 87.1%
Trump 12.4%
Tie 0.5%

Median Electoral Votes

The midpoint outcome

Aug 11
Biden 344
Trump 194

95% of all simulations fall within the full range displayed.

Results Distribution

All outcomes and frequency of occurrence

Aug 11
Biden
Trump

Chart displays electoral votes for the selected candidate.

Results by State - August 11

Click or tap a state to see its trends over time

State Biden Ties Trump Bellwether1 Tipping Point2
Overall Winning % 87.1% 0.5% 12.4%
Alaska 12.1% 87.9% 24.6% -
Arizona 66.0% 34.0% 75.9% 6.1%
Colorado 96.3% 3.7% 89.4% 2.6%
Florida 77.6% 22.4% 87.2% 23.8%
Georgia 43.7% 56.3% 56.0% 2.6%
Indiana 2.1% 97.9% 14.6% -
Iowa 48.9% 51.1% 60.6% 1.8%
Kansas 1.5% 98.5% 14.0% -
Louisiana 0.4% 99.6% 12.9% -
Maine 94.6% 5.4% 89.0% 0.6%
Maine 2nd 54.0% 46.0% 64.8% 0.4%
Michigan 88.1% 11.9% 90.3% 9.9%
Minnesota 91.5% 8.5% 90.0% 5.7%
Mississippi 0.7% 99.3% 13.1% -
Missouri 3.1% 96.9% 15.5% -
Montana 6.9% 93.1% 19.4% -
Nebraska 0.1% 99.9% 12.5% -
Nebraska 1st 0.6% 99.4% 13.0% -
Nebraska 2nd 61.9% 38.1% 71.5% 0.7%
Nevada 89.5% 10.5% 88.8% 3.0%
New Hampshire 87.9% 12.1% 87.9% 2.0%
New Mexico 99.5% 0.5% 87.9% 0.2%
North Carolina 64.5% 35.5% 75.1% 7.6%
Ohio 40.6% 59.4% 53.0% 2.8%
Oregon 99.9% 0.1% 87.6% 0.1%
Pennsylvania 83.4% 16.6% 88.7% 14.7%
South Carolina 9.2% 90.8% 21.7% -
Tennessee 0.1% 99.9% 12.5% -
Texas 33.8% 66.2% 46.4% 2.8%
Utah 0.2% 99.8% 12.7% -
Virginia 97.0% 3.0% 89.3% 4.2%
Wisconsin 80.9% 19.1% 86.2% 7.6%

1 Percentage of simulations where nominee winning state wins the election.
2 The state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering from largest to smallest margin of victory.

Trump >99.9%

1 Bellwether percentage for >99.9% states is the same as the overall winning percentage of the associated nominee.