2020 Battleground 270

This isn't a popularity contest™

Each day, we run 25,000 simulations with the model. On this page, we display the most recent day’s results. This lets us see the full range of plausible range of electoral college outcomes, as well as the current probabilities of victory in each state.

Election Winner

Percentage of wins for each candidate

Oct 23
Biden 87.0%
Trump 12.6%
Tie 0.4%

Median Electoral Votes

The midpoint outcome

Oct 23
Biden 352
Trump 186

95% of all simulations fall within the full range displayed.

Results Distribution

All outcomes and frequency of occurrence

Oct 23
Biden
Trump

Chart displays electoral votes for the selected candidate.

Results by State - October 23

Click or tap a state to see its trends over time

State Biden Ties Trump Bellwether1 Tipping Point2
Overall Winning % 87.0% 0.4% 12.6%
Alaska 18.4% 81.6% 31.0% 0.1%
Arizona 68.3% 31.7% 77.8% 6.6%
Colorado 96.5% 3.5% 89.2% 2.1%
Florida 69.7% 30.3% 80.9% 18.1%
Georgia 55.6% 44.4% 67.3% 5.3%
Indiana 2.8% 97.2% 15.5% -
Iowa 54.3% 45.7% 65.8% 2.0%
Kansas 4.7% 95.3% 17.3% -
Louisiana 0.3% 99.7% 13.0% -
Maine 97.7% 2.3% 88.5% 0.2%
Maine 2nd 62.3% 37.7% 71.9% 0.6%
Michigan 86.3% 13.7% 89.6% 10.4%
Minnesota 90.4% 9.6% 89.5% 6.0%
Mississippi 0.4% 99.6% 13.0% -
Missouri 4.7% 95.3% 17.3% -
Montana 13.2% 86.8% 25.9% -
Nebraska 0.1% 99.9% 12.7% -
Nebraska 1st 0.5% 99.5% 13.1% -
Nebraska 2nd 77.1% 22.9% 82.7% 0.9%
Nevada 85.5% 14.5% 87.5% 3.3%
New Hampshire 88.7% 11.3% 88.1% 2.2%
New Jersey 99.9% 0.1% 87.4% 0.1%
New Mexico 99.3% 0.7% 87.9% 0.3%
North Carolina 65.5% 34.5% 76.0% 7.8%
Ohio 43.8% 56.2% 56.2% 3.5%
Oregon 99.9% 0.1% 87.4% 0.1%
Pennsylvania 84.6% 15.4% 89.3% 14.5%
South Carolina 12.2% 87.8% 24.9% -
Tennessee 0.1% 99.9% 12.7% -
Texas 41.0% 59.0% 53.7% 4.9%
Utah 1.2% 98.8% 13.9% -
Virginia 97.4% 2.6% 88.7% 3.6%
Wisconsin 84.1% 15.9% 87.7% 7.1%

1 Percentage of simulations where nominee winning state wins the election.
2 The state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering from largest to smallest margin of victory.

Trump >99.9%

1 Bellwether percentage for >99.9% states is the same as the overall winning percentage of the associated nominee.