Select the Run Simulation button to conduct a simulated House of Representatives 2018 midterm election. You can choose to have the map populate randomly or by congressional district poll closing times. Seats changing parties in the simulation will be displayed in a table below the map.
The simulator is primarily derived from the data-driven 2018 U.S. House Midterms Election Forecast from The Crosstab by G. Elliott Morris. However, it also takes into consideration the consensus projection of a number of long-time qualitative forecasters.
There are a wide range of possible outcomes for this year’s election. As a result, any simulation is plausible based on current forecasts, but no individual result is particularly likely to happen. The party winning 218 or more seats in the actual midterm election will control the U.S. House when the 116th Congress begins in January.
The final model update took place on the morning of November 6th (Election Day). These are results for the 5,000 most recent simulations as of noon Eastern Time that day.
|* 80% probability the seats won by each party is within this range
^ Based on the current 240-195 House (vacancies assigned to previous incumbent's party)
Reload the page to update this table
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