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Politico Releases Initial 2020 Election Forecast

November 22, 2019

Earlier this week, Politico unveiled its 2020 Election Forecast, providing initial ratings for each state in the presidential election, as well as for next year's congressional elections and gubernatorial contests.  The forecast detail includes a short note on each key/competitive race, as well as recent results in that state or district. 

We've created interactive versions of the ratings; click or tap a map below to access.

President

Politico sees the presidential election as too close to call. They see eight states and a district in Nebraska as toss-ups, worth 112 electoral votes. This includes the three "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that Donald Trump flipped in 2016 on his way to winning the presidency.

The toss-up states give each party about 30 ways to get to 270 electoral votes - explore this with our Road to 270 feature.

Senate

35 seats will be contested next year, 23 held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats. Overall, Politico sees a map that leans in favor of the GOP. To gain control, Democrats must gain 3 seats if they win the presidential election, 4 seats if they do not. That math gets more difficult when considering the Democratic-held seat in Alabama is the most likely to flip parties.

Note that Politico has not yet made a projection for the Georgia special election. We expect they will do so after Gov. Kemp announces a replacement for Sen. Isakson, who is resigning at the end of this year. For now, our map is using the same rating (Lean R) as the state's other Senate seat, which is up for a regular six-year term in 2020.

 

House

As is true every two years, all 435 seats will be contested in 2020. Politico sees Democrats as favored to hold their majority. That task will likely be slightly easier once court-directed redistricting in North Carolina is finalized. Democrats are likely to pick up at least two seats there.

Politico's North Carolina forecast is based on the redrawn map recently submitted by the Republican-controlled legislature. That may or may not be the final map. Note that our map reflects Politico's forecast, but uses the current geographical borders of the districts. We'll update our map once redistricting is finalized.

Governor

GOP currently holds 27 governorships, to 23 for Democrats. This will go to 26-24 when Democrat Andy Beshear takes office in Kentucky on December 10. There will be 11 gubernatorial elections in 2020.

The map below includes recently completed 2019 elections shown as safe for winning party. 

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