September 30, 2019
Republican Rep. Chris Collins has resigned from Congress. He was indicted last summer on insider trading and is expected to plead guilty to those charges this week.
The Western New York 27th district is quite conservative. Despite the legal issues, Collins narrowly won a 4th term last November. Looking back to 2016, Collins won by 34%, while Donald Trump prevailed by 25% over Hillary Clinton. While the retirement of an incumbent often makes House races more competitive, this vacancy will have the opposite effect. Republicans will be heavily favored to win the special election (date TBA) and hold the seat in 2020.
There are now two vacancies in Congress; Former GOP Rep. Sean Duffy of Wisconsin resigned last week. The U.S. House currently has 235 Democrats and 197 Republicans, with one independent.
Kansas Republicans opted for nominees with better general election prospects, while a dynastic Missouri Democratic congressman was defeated
After a two week break, August 4 brings us primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington
Biden is likely to prevail here, but a competitive electoral vote available in the state's 2nd congressional district - won by Trump in 2016 - will draw considerable attention.
See how often a state votes with the election winner and also which states most frequently put the winner across the 270 electoral vote threshold.
Reliably Republican at the presidential level through most of the 20th century, it has voted Democratic since 2008 and looks fairly safe for Joe Biden in 2020