September 30, 2019
Republican Rep. Chris Collins has resigned from Congress. He was indicted last summer on insider trading and is expected to plead guilty to those charges this week.
The Western New York 27th district is quite conservative. Despite the legal issues, Collins narrowly won a 4th term last November. Looking back to 2016, Collins won by 34%, while Donald Trump prevailed by 25% over Hillary Clinton. While the retirement of an incumbent often makes House races more competitive, this vacancy will have the opposite effect. Republicans will be heavily favored to win the special election (date TBA) and hold the seat in 2020.
There are now two vacancies in Congress; Former GOP Rep. Sean Duffy of Wisconsin resigned last week. The U.S. House currently has 235 Democrats and 197 Republicans, with one independent.