Updated Interactive Senate Map with Georgia Special Election

September 1, 2019

The Senate Interactive Map has been updated with the Georgia special election.  The initial consensus rating is Leans Republican.

The added Georgia election will be for the final two years of Sen. Johnny Isakson's term. Isakson recently announced his resignation, effective at the end of this year.  Gov. Brian Kemp will select a replacement who will serve until the winner of the special election takes office in January, 2021.

There are now 35 Senate seats to be contested^ in 2020, 23 held by Republicans, 12 by Democrats. The GOP holds a 53-47 edge. Democrats must have a net gain 3 or 4 seats to take control, depending on the outcome of the presidential election*.

Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections have started the special election with a Leans Republican rating, while The Cook Political Report has gone with Likely Republican. These ratings all mirror those that each forecaster has in place for Georgia's other U.S. Senate seat, which will be up for a regular six-year term in 2020. This makes sense, at least until we have a better handle on who is running, as these 'double-barrel' Senate races usually break the same way.  The last time the parties split in this kind of situation was 1966.

A couple other things to keep in mind...

The Georgia special election will be a 'jungle primary' where all candidates will appear on a single ballot. There will be no party primaries prior to this.

Georgia requires a runoff if no candidate gets a majority of the vote. If either or both of these races need a runoff, it won't take place until January 5, 2021. That is after the expected start of the 117th Congress on January 3, 2021. The November elections could play out in such a way that we won't know who will ultimately control the Senate until January.

^ The Arizona race is also a special election. The winner will complete the final two years of the term of the late John McCain.  Gov. Doug Ducey initially appointed Jon Kyl to the role. Kyl later resigned, and Sen. Martha McSally was appointed to replace him. 

* A 3 seat net Democratic gain would tie the Senate at 50-50. The vice president breaks ties, so if this were to the result of the 2020 election, control would go to the party that wins the presidency.  There is a VP box on the Senate Interactive Map where you can make this selection.

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

New and Updated Features on the 270toWin Website

The electoral map is changing for 2024. This update includes the projected changes as well as Senate and governor maps for 2022

Republican Claudia Tenney Wins NY-22; Final Undecided House Race from November

Democratic incumbent Anthony Brindisi conceded after New York state certified the election

Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby Won't Seek Reelection in 2022

The 6th term Republican is the longest serving Senator in the state's history

Update: 2020 Election if All States Allocated Electoral Votes Like Maine and Nebraska

Biden would have won a narrower 277-261 using this congressional district method, one which is heavily influenced by the number of gerrymandered districts around the country

Sabato's Crystal Ball Initial Ratings for 2022 Senate Election

Another tight battle for control appears on tap in the 2022 midterms