Ratings Changes from Sabato's Crystal Ball

May 10, 2018

Sabato's Crystal Ball has updated a few race ratings for the November elections. They also discuss a few other contests where changes were considered, along with a recap of this past Tuesday's key primary results.

The maps below reflect their current ratings for Senate, House and governor. Click or tap any of them for an interactive version.

Senate

• Tennessee, where polling has indicated a very competitive race, moves from likely R to leans R
• West Virginia, where Republicans chose the more electable of two political outsiders, moves from leans R to toss-up

Republicans currently have a 51-49 edge; Democrats need a net gain of two to take control. That is an uphill climb in a year where the party is defending 26 of the 35 seats up for election, including 10 won by Donald Trump in 2016. 

House

• NC-9, where incumbent Robert Pittenger (R) lost in Tuesday's primary, moves from leans R to toss-up 
• OH-16, based on the nominees chosen on Tuesday, moves from likely R to safe R
• FL-25 saw the entry of a credible Democratic challenger and moves from safe R to likely R (this change was made last week and is not discussed in the article)

Of the 54 seats seen as most competitive (rated toss-up or leaning), Republicans hold 49 of them. This includes the vacant OH-12, which will be filled by a special election in August. 218 seats are needed for control.

Governor

• Massachusetts, where popular governor Charlie Baker is well-positioned for re-election, moves from likely R to safe R

There are 36 gubernatorial elections in 2018.