Ratings Changes: After Arizona Special Election, an Expanding House Battleground

April 26, 2018

On the heels of Tuesday's narrow Republican win in Arizona's 8th district, we have an updated outlook and some ratings changes from the forecasters at Sabato's Crystal Ball. Ratings changes were made to 15 districts, including 10 new races that moved from safe to likely Republican.

In their own words:

"Overall, our House outlook remains the same: Democrats are about 50-50 to win the House. What these ratings change do is make clear that in the event of a big wave, there are some districts that might not seem competitive on paper that could flip, particularly because a deep bench of Democratic candidates is in place to capitalize on a potentially great environment in the fall. That’s where one could see Democrats picking up substantially more than the 23 net seats they need to win House control. However, the Democratic wave could fail to materialize, and Democratic gains could be limited to the teens. At this juncture, the range of possibilities in the House is wide. We realize that may be an unsatisfying and overly cautious assessment, but that’s where we’re at right now with the election still half a year away."

As most of the shifts were from safe to likely Republican, the overall forecast changes little, although the map isn't quite as dark red as it was. Republicans are favored in 211 seats, Democrats 198, with 26 toss-ups. 

Click the image for an interactive version. Note that we've added a 'Map Options' link, near the share buttons, below Florida. For those that don't want to rotate through as many colors when creating a forecast, you can choose a smaller palette there.

The latest ratings changes are in the table below. They include some high profile names. Read the full analysis for more background on these individuals and the rationale for the current rating.

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Tuesday Primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin; Georgia Runoffs

Connecticut holds the final presidential primary of 2020 while a member of 'The Squad' faces a primary challenge in Minnesota.

The Road to 270: Minnesota

No state has had a longer period of voting Democratic in presidential elections. Donald Trump made it close in 2016, but the streak is likely to continue in 2020

Hawaii Primary: Overview and Live Results

Four Democrats are competing to replace the retiring Tulsi Gabbard. Both districts are safely Democratic in November.

Updated Inside Elections House Ratings

The forecaster made 29 changes Friday, moving 27 of them in the direction of Democrats

Who Will Succeed Lamar Alexander? Tennessee Primary Overview and Live Results

The only state in the nation with a Thursday downballot primary. The main contest of interest is the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate