Republican Debbie Lesko won the Arizona 8th congressional district special election Tuesday, defeating Democrat Hiral Tipirneni by 5 points.

While the GOP prevailed, Democrats outperformed history and expectations in this conservative district. This continues a trend that has occurred in every special election since 2016. In this particular district, the prior incumbent Trent Franks won reelection by 37% that year, while Donald Trump bested Hillary Clinton by 21%.

Once Lesko is sworn in, there will be 237 Republicans and 193 Democrats, with 5 vacancies. These will be filled as follows:

• June 30: TX-27,  (prior incumbent) Blake Farenthold (R)
• August 7: OH-12, Pat Tiberi (R)
• November 6: MI-13, John Conyers, Jr. (D)
• Date TBD: NY-25, Louise Slaughter (D)
• Date TBD: OK-1, Jim Bridenstine (R)

At this point, only OH-12 looks competitive. The remaining districts are expected to stay with the incumbent party.