Roy Moore Regains the Lead in Alabama Senate Race, New Polls Find

November 29, 2017

Republican Roy Moore leads Democrat Doug Jones by 5 points in the Alabama Senate race, a new poll from JMC Analytics finds. This is a 9 point reversal from their last survey, which had Jones up by 4. That survey was taken November 9-11, just as the most serious charge leveled against Mr. Moore, an encounter with a 14 year old girl, was becoming public. To that end, a rebound for Moore was not unexpected. JMC Analytics notes that:

"Since the last poll, both Republicans in general and Roy Moore specifically have regained their plurality leads, and this arguably can be attributed to existing partisan preferences’ reasserting themselves: in the last poll, Moore was tied 47-47% among male voters and trailed 42-48% among women. While he still trails by a similar 44-50% among women (leaners included), he has rebounded among men and leads 54-37%. Similarly, among self-identified evangelicals, the 57-34% support he had in the last poll is now 64-29%. The numbers barely changed among non-evangelicals, where his 22-73% poll deficit is now 23-72%." 

This is the third poll in recent days to find Moore with a small lead. Emerson College had Moore ahead by 6 points*, while Change Research has Moore up 49-44%, the exact same finding as JMC Analytics. (Both these 49-44 results included those leaning to one candidate or the other). This article discusses those results in a bit more detail.

The special election will be held in about two weeks, on Tuesday December 12th.

* Given a 53-47 result, it does not appear as though 'undecided' was available as an option. 

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

New and Updated Features on the 270toWin Website

The electoral map is changing for 2024. This update includes the projected changes as well as Senate and governor maps for 2022

Republican Claudia Tenney Wins NY-22; Final Undecided House Race from November

Democratic incumbent Anthony Brindisi conceded after New York state certified the election

Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby Won't Seek Reelection in 2022

The 6th term Republican is the longest serving Senator in the state's history

Update: 2020 Election if All States Allocated Electoral Votes Like Maine and Nebraska

Biden would have won a narrower 277-261 using this congressional district method, one which is heavily influenced by the number of gerrymandered districts around the country

Sabato's Crystal Ball Initial Ratings for 2022 Senate Election

Another tight battle for control appears on tap in the 2022 midterms