We've rolled over our interactive gubernatorial map to reflect the 36 states holding elections in 2018. New Jersey and Virginia, both of whom elected new governors earlier this month, have been removed.
While most 2018 focus is on which party will control the House and/or Senate in Congress after the midterm elections, these gubernatorial races will greatly influence which party controls the House over the next decade. That's because almost all the 2018 winners will be in office when redistricting begins after the 2020 Census. In most states, the legislature redraws congressional districts, while the governor wields veto power.
This first map shows the incumbent governor's party for each 2018 race. For the 14 states not holding elections, 7 are held by Republicans, 7 by Democrats. This brings the current^ party composition to 33 Republicans, 16 Democrats and one independent.
Looking at the 2018 races, Republicans are favored in 20, Democrats 8, with 8 toss-ups. At this point, only New Mexico favors the out-party, as that race leans Democratic. Of the eight toss-ups, five have Republican incumbents (FL, IL, ME, MI, NV), while CO and CT are in Democratic hands. AK, home to the nation's lone independent governor, is also seen as a toss-up.
Click or tap the map below to create your own forecast. The table on the landing page also lists all the incumbents. Note that 14 of them are unable to run in 2018 due to term limits, while three more are retiring. Just under half of these 36 states - more if any running incumbents lose - will have new governors in 2019.
^ As of January 16, 2018, when Republican Chris Chrstie leaves office in New Jersey and is replaced by Democrat Phil Murphy. Until then, there are 34 Republicans, 15 Democrats and one independent.
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