Electoral College Projections as of October 13th

October 13, 2016

With just under four weeks to go until the 2016 presidential election, here's the state of the race from the viewpoint of 14 forecasters. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

Since our last update on October 5th, Hillary Clinton's average total electoral votes climbed from 280 to 300, most of which derived from forecasters moving states out of toss-up. Donald Trump's average only fell slightly, from 193 to 189. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Unanimous Supreme Court Says States Can Punish or Replace Faithless Electors

Settles various court cases emerging from the 2016 election that saw 10 electors attempt to be faithless to their pledged candidate

The Road to 270: South Carolina

Bordered by two competitive 2020 states (NC and GA), the state seems safe for Trump. It remains to be seen if his coattails help reelect Graham and/or regain SC-1

Rep. Scott Tipton Ousted in CO-3 GOP Primary

Becomes 5th incumbent to lose this year

Overview and Live Results for June 30 Primaries in Colorado, Oklahoma and Utah

A handful of interesting races to watch, including Dem. Senate primary in Colorado and a very tight GOP gubernatorial race in Utah.

Amy McGrath Wins Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary

McGrath held off a late challenge from Charles Booker