October 12, 2016
A fascinating new poll out in Utah has Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump tied, with independent conservative Evan McMullin close behind, within the margin of error. Gary Johnson also makes a significant showing, with the non-major party candidates combining for a total well in excess of either Clinton or Trump. This sets the stage for a possible win by a third party in Utah this year, if Utahns can settle on either McMullin or Johnson.
Our three-way electoral map allows you to consider the possibility that a 3rd party could win electoral votes in 2016. Specific names can be set by clicking to the left of the electoral counter. We've given Utah to McMullin in the example below.
The forecaster sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election
After swinging sharply to Donald Trump in 2016, the state is among the most competitive in 2020. A closely-contested Senate race may help determine control of that chamber.
Currently at 233 seats - 218 needed - Democrats have a high probability of retaining control after the 2020 election.
The Sunshine State's competitiveness and large electoral bounty will once again play a pivotal role in the 2020 election.
Changes made to the electoral map, as well as to individual races for Senate, House and Governor.