While Early Vote Favored Trump, Clinton Wins Debate Straw Poll by 4 Points

September 27, 2016

Hillary Clinton won our closely-divided straw poll, with 52.2% saying she won the debate vs. 47.8% for Donald Trump. 9,201 votes were cast (after duplicate submissons were removed) in this non-scientific survey.

When we reported preliminary results Tuesday morning, Trump was leading 50.8% to 49.2%. As we dug into the numbers, we found Trump did much better among those that voted just after the debate, while Clinton got stronger as the hours went along. About 50% of votes were cast between the debate's end and 1AM ET, with Trump winning by about 52-48%. Thereafter, Clinton won by 56-44%. That 8 point swing gave Clinton the four point overall margin.

 

Since we didn't ask other questions, it is hard to know the reason for this shift. However, we don't recall ever seeing anything close to this kind of a time-based change of opinion in our prior straw polls. For whatever reason, first impressions did not last after Monday's debate.

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Overview and Live Results: New York City Mayoral Primary

Thirteen Democrats vying for the nomination - and an almost certain win in November - to succeed Bill de Blasio

Overview & Live Results: Buffalo Mayoral Primary, Alabama State House Primary Runoff

Buffalo's mayor seeks an unprecedented fifth term while Alabama District 78 Democrats settle on a nominee

Ranked Choice Voting, Other Election Changes Impact NYC Mayoral Primary

Democratic nominee - who will be a heavy favorite in November - may not be known for several weeks

New Feature: 2021 House of Representatives Map

In advance of redistricting, a look at the current partisan composition of the House, including a table of incumbents and 2020 margins

Overview & Live Results: Battleground State House Special Election in Georgia

Georgia will fill two vacancies in its state house, including a battleground district in suburban Atlanta. There's also a special primary in Wisconsin.