August 25, 2016
For third party candidates, ballot access is crucial if polling support is to translate into votes on Election Day. As of now, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is on the ballot in 43 states + DC, with efforts underway to get access in the remaining seven states. Green Party nominee Jill Stein is on the ballot in 35 states + DC.
Johnson's ballot access represents 487 of 538 electoral votes, while Stein is at 425. Although clearly less desirable, it is worth noting that some states allow limited access via write-in for names not printed on the ballot.
Both Johnson and Stein are repeat nominees for their parties. In 2012, Johnson was on the ballot in all but Michigan and Oklahoma. Stein was on the ballot in 36 states + DC.
The forecaster sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election
After swinging sharply to Donald Trump in 2016, the state is among the most competitive in 2020. A closely-contested Senate race may help determine control of that chamber.
Currently at 233 seats - 218 needed - Democrats have a high probability of retaining control after the 2020 election.
The Sunshine State's competitiveness and large electoral bounty will once again play a pivotal role in the 2020 election.
Changes made to the electoral map, as well as to individual races for Senate, House and Governor.