June 17, 2016
According to Rep. David Jolly (FL-13), Senator Marco Rubio will reverse course and run for reelection this fall. Rubio had previously indicated he was not seeking a second term to focus on his presidential campaign. The unsuccessful conclusion to that, coupled with increasing GOP concern about maintaining Senate control is contributing to the apparent about-face.
This decision will set some dominoes in motion in the Sunshine State. Jolly, currently in the Senate race, is expected to defer to Rubio and instead run for re-election in his Congressional District. Jolly's official decision is expected at noon today. Jolly will face an uphill battle to hold his seat against former Gov. Charlie Crist in a district that is now more Democratic after court-ordered redistricting.
Rep. Ron DeSantis (FL-06), another Senate candidate, may choose to run for another term as well.
The filing deadline in Florida is June 24th, with the primary elections taking place on August 30th.
Assuming Rubio wins the primary, he would likely face either Rep. Patrick Murphy (FL-18) or Rep. Alan Grayson (FL-09). The race is currently seen as a toss-up by Sabato's Crystal Ball, a rating that is not expected to change in the near-term, even with a Rubio candidacy.
At the presidential level, the Magnolia State has voted for only one Democratic nominee since 1960. The population demographics drive remarkably consistent results every four years.
Rescheduled from April 4, this party primary was conducted exclusively by mail
15 seats were updated, 7 of which moved to safe for the November elections
This far out, polling may be of limited predictive value, but it will become more and more relevant as November draws closer
Having a long history of conducting elections by mail, the state was able to keep its original May 19 primary date. Live results for contested presidential and congressional contests