New Hampshire Polling Update

February 5, 2016

Despite some variability across individual polls, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders retain double-digit leads as we head into the final weekend before Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. The five polls being averaged below were all released today (one yesterday on the Democratic side).

Republican: Trump and Rubio were 1-2 in all five of today's releases, with Trump's lead ranging from 10 to 21 points. Ted Cruz and John Kasich are essentially tied for 3rd, on average, although the two were no closer than 3 points in any individual poll. 

Correction: Rubio had 19.4% in the Suffolk poll, which rounds to 19%. The text "Trump's lead ranging from 9 to 21 points" in the above paragraph has been updated to reflect this change.

Democrat: Bernie Sanders leads in all five polls, with margins ranging from 9 to 20 points. Interestingly, the Suffolk survey showed the smallest spread in both parties.

 American Research Group and UMass Lowell have been conducting daily tracking polls, so expect to see continued polling releases over the weekend. 

The Tuesday snowstorm threat we discussed earlier seems to have waned with this afternoon's forecasts. The storm is still expected to form, but looks to track further offshore than earlier projections, limiting snow accumulations. Things could change again, of course.

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Joe Biden 35 Delegates From Clinching Democratic Nomination

He's likely to cross the threshold when this week's remaining delegates are awarded. However, if he comes up short, he'll almost certainly lock it up when Georgia polls close next Tuesday.

Rep. Steve King Loses Primary; Seat Moves to Safe Republican in November

Nine-term term incumbent becomes 2nd member to lose primary in 2020

Nine States and DC Hold Primaries Today: Overview and Live Results

On one of the busier days of the reshuffled calendar, Joe Biden has a chance to clinch the nomination. However, a late change in Pennsylvania may delay that opportunity.

The Road to 270: Washington

An increasingly blue state overall, the Cascade mountain range marks both a physical and political separation between largely liberal and conservative populations.

The Road to 270: Mississippi

At the presidential level, the Magnolia State has voted for only one Democratic nominee since 1960. The population demographics drive remarkably consistent results every four years.