270toWin Redesign

Comparing the Democratic Polls With and Without Biden

October 21, 2015

Vice President Joe Biden's announcement that he has decided not to run in 2016 leaves us, at least for the moment, with two leading contenders for the Democratic nomination.

Biden has been polling in the 15-20% range in recent weeks. Where will that support go? We decided to take a look back at recent polls, most of which (conveniently) ask people to make a choice both ways --- if Biden is in, and if he is not.

The table below shows the results:

 The short answer is that Clinton picks up much of Biden's voters. Her lead over Sanders moves up 5%, from 21 to 26 points. 

Of course, there's a difference between asking people who they would support if Biden wasn't running and actually having to make a choice now that he isn't. We'll need to wait and see if polls taken after today's announcement show the same results.

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