Poll Shows 2016 Race Tightening in Key Swing States

March 31, 2015

A March 31 Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll shows Hillary Clinton's lead shrinking (even disappearing in a couple cases) in 2016 match-ups against prospective Republican nominees. Polls were conducted in the critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

A few highlights

  • Jeb Bush leads Clinton by 45% to 42% in Florida. While within the margin of error, this is one of the stronger Republican showings vs. Clinton seen in 2016 competitive state polling thus far
  • Rand Paul leads Clinton by 45% to 44% in Pennsylvania
  • Scott Walker's recent strong performance in Republican primary polling is not yet carrying over to the general electorate. Walker trails Clinton by 5% to 11% across the three states
  • Clinton is polling strongest overall in Ohio, leading by an average of 8.6% (vs. 4% to 5% in the other two states). A Republican has never won the presidency without carrying Ohio.

We've made a few updates to our polling-based HRC vs. GOP electoral maps.

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