August 5, 2014
The new 270toWin Senate election simulator assesses the likelihood of Senate control based on the probabilities in each race. As guidance for users, we start with the average of the probabilities calculated by the respective New York Times and Washington Post Senate forecast models.
The real value-add here is that users can adjust those probabilities as they see fit, with each adjustment recalculating the overall probability. There is also an option to run single simulations, similar to a popular presidential feature we have on the site.
Like other 270toWin features, the goal here is to actively engage users by providing tools to enable them to make their own election forecasts.
Updated every two hours until election day, this map will reflect the probabilistic model used by fivethirtyeight
With a rapidly growing, highly-educated population, the Lone Star State is evolving into a major presidential and congressional battleground
This map shows who is leading in the polls in each state, regardless of the size of the margin
The state will elect a Senator, Representative and Governor this fall; all the incumbents are heavily favored to win reelection
50 days from the presidential election, we look at this Midwestern battleground that, prior to Trump's win, had not voted Republican for president since 1984