Probability of 270 Electoral Votes

June 19, 2012

We've relaunched  "The Probability of 270" to the interactive electoral college map page. This feature works in tandem with your maps, as you create them, to tell you the probability that either candidate will reach 270 electoral votes based on the remaining states undecided on your map. The calculated probabilities for each state are derived primarily from current state by state polls, basically using the same methodology that underlies the 2012 election simulator  (which is also live for 2012). Therefore, it is subject to many of the same limitations as that tool, which you can read about on the simulator page.

You'll find The Probability of 270 underneath The Road to 270, both of which are below the interactive map. As a reminder, The Road to 270 calculates every critical path to 270 electoral votes remaining for each of the candidates. Both of these features will appear with 12 or fewer states remaining undecided on your map, where neither candidate has 270 and will dynamically update every time you change the status of one of the states in the map.

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Interactive Map for the FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast

Updated every two hours until election day, this map will reflect the probabilistic model used by fivethirtyeight

The Road to 270: Texas

With a rapidly growing, highly-educated population, the Lone Star State is evolving into a major presidential and congressional battleground

Polling Map with No Toss-ups

This map shows who is leading in the polls in each state, regardless of the size of the margin

Delaware Wraps up the 2020 Primary Season: Overview and Live Results

The state will elect a Senator, Representative and Governor this fall; all the incumbents are heavily favored to win reelection

The Road to 270: Wisconsin

50 days from the presidential election, we look at this Midwestern battleground that, prior to Trump's win, had not voted Republican for president since 1984