June 1, 2012
For background on this, see this Swing States Update post. The current toss up map is here; 10 states remain in the toss up category based on the criteria of being listed as a toss up by one or more of 4 professional pundits.
NBC and Cook Political have made some race ratings changes this week. Those that impact the toss up states are shown in the accompanying table. Seven states are now seen as toss ups by all these groups: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. Iowa and New Hampshire are new this time. There's a difference of opinion on North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In the above table, From R(epublican), From D(emocrat) and From T(oss up) reflect the prior rating for those that have changed.
Prior content in this topic. Original post 4/26/12:
**May 16 Update** A couple weeks back, the New York Times came out with their battleground state analysis. Wisconsin was included in that list. Given this plus recent polling which shows the race basically tied, we've added the Times as a 4th resource (see post below) and moved Wisconsin into the toss-up category in our map.
**UPDATE: Here's a saved/shareable copy of the toss-up map**
We've updated the swing states starting view on our home page 2012 interactive electoral map. As with all the views provided, this is just meant as a starting point for you to create and share your own forecast for the 2012 presidential election.
Any state considered a toss-up by one or more of the professional prognosticators below is shown as a swing state on our map. The rest of the states are colored blue or red, reflecting an overall opinion that those states are either leaning, likely or safe for one of the two candidates. All these groups have updated their forecasts this week (late April), so the 270 swing states map reflects the current general consensus of these groups.
We'll try and stick to this more consistent methodology for updating the map as the election draws closer.
Updated every two hours until election day, this map will reflect the probabilistic model used by fivethirtyeight
With a rapidly growing, highly-educated population, the Lone Star State is evolving into a major presidential and congressional battleground
This map shows who is leading in the polls in each state, regardless of the size of the margin
The state will elect a Senator, Representative and Governor this fall; all the incumbents are heavily favored to win reelection
50 days from the presidential election, we look at this Midwestern battleground that, prior to Trump's win, had not voted Republican for president since 1984