Toss Up and Battleground States for 2012 Presidential Election

June 1, 2012

For background on this, see this Swing States Update post. The current toss up map is here; 10 states remain in the toss up category based on the criteria of being listed as a toss up by one or more of 4 professional pundits.

NBC and Cook Political have made some race ratings changes this week.   Those that impact the toss up states are shown in the accompanying table.   Seven states are now seen as toss ups by all these groups:  Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. Iowa and New Hampshire are new this time.   There's a difference of opinion on North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

 

 

 

 
In the above table, From R(epublican), From D(emocrat) and From T(oss up) reflect the prior rating for those that have changed.
 
Prior content in this topic. Original post 4/26/12:
 

**May 16 Update** A couple weeks back, the New York Times came out with their battleground state analysis.   Wisconsin was included in that list.    Given this plus recent polling which shows the race basically tied, we've added the Times as a 4th resource (see post below) and moved Wisconsin into the toss-up category in our map.

**UPDATE:  Here's a saved/shareable copy of the toss-up map**

We've updated the swing states starting view on our home page 2012 interactive electoral map. As with all the views provided, this is just meant as a starting point for you to create and share your own forecast for the 2012 presidential election.

Any state considered a toss-up by one or more of the professional prognosticators below is shown as a swing state on our map.   The rest of the states are colored blue or red, reflecting an overall opinion that those states are either leaning, likely or safe for one of the two candidates.  All these groups have updated their forecasts this week (late April), so the 270 swing states map reflects the current general consensus of these groups.

We'll try and stick to this more consistent methodology for updating the map as the election draws closer.
 
comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Wisconsin 7th Congressional District Special Primary Election: Overview and Results

The seat has been vacant since former Rep. Sean Duffy resigned in September

Numerous Super Tuesday Polls Released Today

Includes polls from three of the four states with the largest delegate pools available that day.

Bloomberg Jumps to 19% in National Poll; Qualifies for Wednesday Debate

The former NYC mayor trailed only Bernie Sanders in the poll from NPR/PBS/Marist

The Road to 270: Kentucky

There's little suspense in a state Trump carried by 30 points in 2016. We also take a look at the high-profile race involving Sen. Mitch McConnell

The Nevada Poll: Sanders Leads Biden; 6 Candidates with Double-Digit Support

The Vermont Senator received 25% support, with the former vice-president at 18%