2024 Battleground 270
This isn't a popularity contest™
Each morning, we run 25,000 simulations with the election model. On this page, you can see how the probability of a Harris or Trump election win and the median electoral votes for each have evolved over time.
There is also a results distribution graphic for the most recent day. This displays the frequency of each outcome across all 25,000 simulations.
Toward the bottom of the page, you can see results by state for the most recent day. Select a state to view a chart of how that individual state's winning probability has changed over time.
The final update with Joe Biden was July 21. Daily updates resumed on July 31, based on a Trump vs. Harris general election.
Election Winner
Percentage of wins for each candidate
| Sep 20 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Harris | 53.6% | |
| Trump | 45.6% | |
| Tie | 0.8% | |
Median Electoral Votes
The midpoint outcome
| Sep 20 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Harris | 276 | |
| Trump | 262 | |
Results Distribution
All outcomes and frequency of occurrence
| Sep 20 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Harris | ||
| Trump | ||
Chart displays electoral votes for the selected candidate.
Results by State - September 20
Click or tap a state to see its trends over time
| State | Harris | Ties | Trump | Bellwether1 | Tipping Point2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Winning % | 53.6% | 0.8% | 45.6% | ||
| Alaska | 4.8% | 95.2% | 50.0% | 0.2% | |
| Arizona | 44.6% | 55.4% | 76.1% | 5.2% | |
| Colorado | 94.6% | 5.4% | 58.9% | 0.3% | |
| Connecticut | 97.8% | 2.2% | 55.8% | - | |
| Delaware | 97.1% | 2.9% | 56.4% | - | |
| Florida | 21.0% | 79.0% | 66.3% | 4.0% | |
| Georgia | 40.2% | 59.8% | 80.0% | 9.8% | |
| Illinois | 96.6% | 3.4% | 56.9% | 0.1% | |
| Iowa | 9.6% | 90.4% | 55.1% | 0.2% | |
| Kansas | 2.3% | 97.7% | 47.9% | - | |
| Louisiana | 1.3% | 98.7% | 46.9% | - | |
| Maine | 84.0% | 16.0% | 68.1% | 0.4% | |
| Maine 2nd | 17.5% | 82.5% | 62.0% | 0.3% | |
| Michigan | 62.1% | 37.9% | 85.8% | 11.5% | |
| Minnesota | 79.5% | 20.5% | 73.1% | 2.4% | |
| Mississippi | 1.8% | 98.2% | 47.5% | - | |
| Missouri | 1.5% | 98.5% | 47.1% | - | |
| Nebraska 1st | 4.1% | 95.9% | 49.7% | - | |
| Nebraska 2nd | 66.8% | 33.2% | 78.8% | 1.8% | |
| Nevada | 55.0% | 45.0% | 79.5% | 3.4% | |
| New Hampshire | 85.9% | 14.1% | 67.2% | 0.5% | |
| New Jersey | 95.4% | 4.6% | 58.1% | 0.3% | |
| New Mexico | 91.9% | 8.1% | 61.2% | 0.7% | |
| North Carolina | 42.6% | 57.4% | 83.8% | 12.1% | |
| Ohio | 6.5% | 93.5% | 52.1% | 0.1% | |
| Oregon | 95.4% | 4.6% | 58.0% | 0.3% | |
| Pennsylvania | 54.4% | 45.6% | 90.0% | 27.2% | |
| South Carolina | 4.3% | 95.7% | 49.9% | - | |
| Texas | 14.3% | 85.7% | 59.7% | 3.8% | |
| Virginia | 89.3% | 10.7% | 64.2% | 1.0% | |
| Washington | 98.6% | 1.4% | 54.9% | 0.1% | |
| Wisconsin | 54.6% | 45.4% | 87.6% | 13.4% |
1 Percentage of simulations where nominee winning state wins the election.
2 The state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering from largest to smallest margin of victory.
Harris >99.9%
Trump >99.9%
1 Bellwether percentage for >99.9% states is the same as the overall winning percentage of the associated nominee.
