Arizona 2024 Presidential Election Polls

Biden vs. Trump

Source Date Sample Biden Trump Other
Average of 2 Polls† 43.0% 47.5% -
Bloomberg / Morning Consult 2/29/2024 798 RV ±3% 43% 49% 8%
Emerson College 2/22/2024 1,000 RV ±3% 43% 46% 11%
Bloomberg / Morning Consult 1/31/2024 800 RV ±3% 44% 47% 9%
Redfield & Wilton 1/08/2024 659 LV 35% 41% 24%
Bullfinch Group 12/18/2023 600 RV ±4% 40% 50% 10%
Bloomberg / Morning Consult 12/14/2023 796 RV ±3% 42% 46% 12%
Redfield & Wilton 12/05/2023 1,103 LV ±2.7% 33% 40% 27%
J.L. Partners 12/04/2023 550 LV ±4.2% 34% 39% 27%
Noble Predictive Insights 11/14/2023 1,010 RV ±3.1% 38% 46% 16%
Bloomberg / Morning Consult 11/09/2023 800 RV ±3% 42% 46% 12%
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Including Third Parties and Independents

A separate average calculation for the subset of polls that have a question that names one or more notable candidates in addition to Biden and Trump. The inclusion of these names can significantly influence the polling average.

Source Date Sample Biden Stein Kennedy West Trump Other
Average of 2 Polls† 36.5% 1.0% 8.5% 1.0% 44.0% -
Bloomberg / Morning Consult 2/29/2024 798 RV ±3% 36% 1% 9% 1% 45% 8%
Emerson College 2/22/2024 1,000 RV ±3% 37% 1% 8% 1% 43% 10%
Bloomberg / Morning Consult 1/31/2024 800 RV ±3% 35% 1% 10% 1% 43% 10%
Redfield & Wilton 1/08/2024 659 LV 35% - 10% - 41% 14%
Bloomberg / Morning Consult 12/14/2023 796 RV ±3% 37% 1% 10% 1% 40% 11%
Redfield & Wilton 12/05/2023 1,103 LV ±2.7% 33% - 10% - 40% 17%
J.L. Partners 12/04/2023 550 LV ±4.2% 34% 0% 4% 1% 39% 22%
Bloomberg / Morning Consult 11/09/2023 800 RV ±3% 36% - 10% 1% 40% 13%
NY Times / Siena College 11/05/2023 603 RV ±4.4% 33% - 26% - 33% 8%
Redfield & Wilton 10/15/2023 750 RV ±3.6% 37% - 8% - 42% 13%

Biden vs. Haley

Source Date Sample Biden Haley Other
NY Times / Siena College 11/05/2023 603 RV ±4.4% 38% 45% 17%

†The average includes the most recent poll from each source within the past 30 days, up to a maximum of five. If five polls are found, and there are other qualifying polls on that same calendar date, those will also be included.

When did it last happen?

This feature shows the most recent election where the state voted with or against the presidential winner in each party. Click the year to see the corresponding electoral map and results.
Arizona Winner
Biden
Trump
Romney
Election Winner
Biden
Trump
Obama
2020
2016
2012
Never