Arizona 2024 Presidential Election Polls

Harris vs. Trump

Source Date Sample Harris Trump Other
Average of 4 Polls† 43.3% 48.8% -
Redfield & Wilton 7/26/2024 510 LV ±3.9% 43% 46% 11%
Emerson College 7/25/2024 800 RV ±3.4% 44% 49% 7%
Public Policy 7/22/2024 596 RV 44% 52% 4%
InsiderAdvantage 7/18/2024 800 LV ±3% 42% 48% 10%
Bloomberg / Morning Consult 5/22/2024 795 RV 42% 51% 7%
Emerson College 2/22/2024 1,000 RV ±3% 40% 48% 12%
NY Times / Siena College 11/05/2023 603 RV ±4.4% 43% 48% 9%

Harris vs. Trump

Including Third Parties and Independents

A separate average calculation for the subset of polls that have a question that names one or more notable candidates in addition to Harris and Trump. The inclusion of these names can significantly influence the polling average.

Source Date Sample Harris Stein Kennedy West Oliver Trump Other
Average of 2 Polls† 41.5% 0.5% 4.5% 1.0% 1.0% 47.0% -
Redfield & Wilton 7/26/2024 510 LV ±3.9% 43% 0% 4% - 1% 46% 6%
Emerson College 7/25/2024 800 RV ±3.4% 40% 1% 5% 1% 1% 48% 4%

Biden vs. Trump

Source Date Sample Biden Trump Other
Average of 5 Polls† 41.2% 46.4% -
Redfield & Wilton 7/21/2024 454 LV ±4.2% 40% 44% 16%
InsiderAdvantage 7/18/2024 800 LV ±3% 44% 49% 7%
Emerson College 7/18/2024 1,000 RV ±3% 40% 47% 13%
Redfield & Wilton 7/15/2024 419 LV 39% 43% 18%
The Times (UK) / YouGov 7/15/2024 900 RV ±3.9% 37% 44% 19%
Bloomberg / Morning Consult 7/06/2024 781 RV ±4% 45% 48% 7%
Emerson College 7/02/2024 1,000 RV ±3% 42% 46% 12%
North Star Opinion Research 6/21/2024 600 LV ±4% 42% 48% 10%
Emerson College 6/20/2024 1,000 RV ±3% 43% 47% 10%
Redfield & Wilton 6/17/2024 430 LV 38% 40% 22%
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Biden vs. Trump

Including Third Parties and Independents

A separate average calculation for the subset of polls that have a question that names one or more notable candidates in addition to Biden and Trump. The inclusion of these names can significantly influence the polling average.

Source Date Sample Biden Stein Kennedy West Oliver Trump Other
Average of 5 Polls† 36.6% 1.4% 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 44.2% -
Redfield & Wilton 7/21/2024 454 LV ±4.2% 40% 1% 7% - 1% 44% 7%
Emerson College 7/18/2024 1,000 RV ±3% 36% 1% 6% 1% 1% 46% 9%
Redfield & Wilton 7/15/2024 419 LV 39% 1% 7% - 1% 43% 9%
The Times (UK) / YouGov 7/15/2024 900 RV ±3.9% 37% 2% 5% 1% - 44% 11%
Bloomberg / Morning Consult 7/06/2024 781 RV ±4% 38% 0% 9% 1% 0% 45% 7%
Emerson College 7/02/2024 1,000 RV ±3% 38% 1% 6% 0% 1% 44% 10%
North Star Opinion Research 6/21/2024 600 LV ±4% 32% 3% 13% - 2% 42% 8%
Emerson College 6/20/2024 1,000 RV ±3% 39% 1% 8% 1% - 43% 8%
Redfield & Wilton 6/17/2024 430 LV 38% 1% 6% - 0% 40% 15%
AARP 6/12/2024 600 LV ±4% 37% 3% 11% - 0% 45% 4%
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†The average includes all polls within seven days of the date of the most recent poll, limited to one poll from any source. If there are fewer than five, the window is expanded to 30 days or five polls, whichever comes first. In the latter scenario, if there are multiple qualifying polls on the same calendar date as the oldest poll used, those will also be included.

When did it last happen?

This feature shows the most recent election where the state voted with or against the presidential winner in each party. Click the year to see the corresponding electoral map and results.
Arizona Winner
Biden
Trump
Romney
Election Winner
Biden
Trump
Obama
2020
2016
2012
Never