Super Tuesday Democratic Polling Update

February 28: We've updated the information below: Go Here.

Yesterday, we discussed the Super Tuesday Republican contests.

Democrats will hold their primary in South Carolina on Saturday, which Hillary Clinton is expected to win handily. Super Tuesday follows, with over 20% of delegates that day. Here's a very quick update on the polling in each state. Democratic primaries generally follow the same proportional allocation formula, allocating some statewide, some by Congressional District, with a 15% minimum threshold. 

In the list below, the delegate numbers are totals for the Democratic Convention, they may not all get allocated on Super Tuesday. Select a state for details.

Public Policy (PPP) did a poll series for all the states with primaries on that date; in many cases the only polling available. The executive summary is that Clinton is set to do very well on Super Tuesday; she may only lose Vermont, although a couple other states may be competitive.

Alabama (Primary, 60 delegates): Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 28 points in the PPP poll out last week (Solid Clinton)

Arkansas (Primary, 37): Clinton up 25 in this PPP poll (Solid Clinton)

Colorado (Caucus, 79): No recent polling; delegates won't actually be awarded until a later date

Georgia (Primary, 116): A couple polls over the past week have Clinton up by an average of 43 points (Solid Clinton)

Massachusetts (Primary, 116): Neighbor state to Sanders home; he leads polling by an average of 3.5% (Toss-up) 

Minnesota (Caucus, 93): A late January poll showed Clinton up by 34 points (Solid Clinton)

Oklahoma (Primary, 42): One February poll had Clinton up 14, the other just two (Leans Clinton)

Tennessee (Primary, 76): Clinton up by 26 in PPP poll (Solid Clinton)

Texas (Primary, 252): Clinton's lead has been narrowing, but still up by 10 in a poll out today (Likely Clinton)

Vermont (Primary, 26): No contest here; Sanders leads his home state by about 70 points; may keep Clinton under 15% and win all the state's delegates (Solid Sanders)

Virginia (Primary, 110): PPP has Clinton up 22; another pollster has it at 12 (Likely Clinton)

March 1 will also see the American Samoa territorial caucus, with 10 total delegates. 

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Live Results: Alabama State House Special Election

Democrats will try and flip one of the few competitive legislative districts in the state

Joe Biden Wins Missouri Democratic Primary

The party-run primary this past Saturday adds over 60 delegates to the president's total

Live Results: Louisiana Presidential Primary

Presumptive nominees Trump and Biden expected to pad their insurmountable delegate leads

Overview and Live Results: Illinois and Ohio Primaries

The marquee race is the Republican primary for Senate in Ohio. The winner will face Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is seeking his 4th term.

Northern Mariana Islands Republican Caucus

The territory holds the first GOP contest since Donald Trump clinched the nomination