This page is associated with the 2016 election.

Electoral Maps Derived from FiveThirtyEight Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight is forecasting the presidential election with three models.  In each of these approaches, state-level winning probabilities are assigned to the candidates with each update of the forecast. For more information, see the FiveThirtyEight election forecast user guide. 

What we've done here is created an electoral map for each model from the current* FiveThirtyEight state-level probabilities. Essentially, we are coloring a state for Clinton or Trump where one of them has a 60% or higher chance of winning. Blue and red are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, with the gradient deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90% +). As the election draws nearer, look for fewer differences between the three maps.

Click or tap any of the maps for an interactive version. 

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Polls Plus: "What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8" 

 
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Polls Only: "What the polls alone tell us about Nov. 8"

 
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Now-cast: "Who would win the election if it were held today"


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* We're updating hourly, so our maps will slightly lag any updates to the FiveThirtyEight forecasts.