Three Weeks Out: Updated Senate Polling Averages for Competitive Elections
By 270toWin Staff
October 18, 2022, 3:28 PM ET
The information on this page is current as of 3:00 PM Eastern Time on October 18. Select a state in the table to see the latest average as well as individual poll detail.
There have been no changes to the consensus forecast since we published this table last week: 24 of this year's 35 U.S. Senate seats up for election are seen as safe for the incumbent party. That includes 15 of 21 GOP-held seats, and nine of 14 held by Democrats. Assuming those play out as expected, Democrats1 1Includes independents in Maine and Vermont that caucus with the party. will hold 45 seats, Republicans 44.
The other 11 seats feature varying levels of competitiveness, according to the consensus. The table below lists those states, ordered by the 270toWin polling average margin between the two major party candidates.
| State | ^ | Democrat | Average | Republican | Average | Margin | Consensus |
| Ohio | Ryan | 45.5% | Vance | 45.7% | 0.2% | Leans R | |
| North Carolina | Beasley | 44.0% | Budd | 45.2% | 1.2% | Leans R | |
| Nevada | Cortez Masto* | 44.5% | Laxalt | 46.2% | 1.7% | Toss-up | |
| Georgia | Warnock* | 47.8% | Walker | 44.6% | 3.2% | Toss-up | |
| Pennsylvania | Fetterman | 45.6% | Oz | 42.2% | 3.4% | Tilts D | |
| Wisconsin | Barnes | 46.6% | Johnson* | 50.2% | 3.6% | Leans R | |
| Florida | Demings | 42.5% | Rubio* | 47.3% | 4.8% | Likely R | |
| Arizona | Kelly* | 47.2% | Masters | 41.6% | 5.6% | Leans D | |
| New Hampshire | Hassan* | 49.8% | Bolduc | 43.4% | 6.4% | Leans D | |
| Utah | McMullin1 | 37.0% | Lee* | 45.0% | 8.0% | Likely R | |
| Colorado | Bennet* | 47.8% | O'Dea | 39.4% | 8.4% | Likely D |
^ Current party holding the seat * Incumbent
1In lieu of nominating a candidate, Democrats in Utah have endorsed independent Evan McMullin.
Although it hasn't led to any ratings changes as of this writing, a well-regarded Iowa poll released this past weekend found Republican Sen. Charles Grassley with just a 3% lead over Democrat Michael Franken. The Iowa polling average still favors Grassley by 9.4%.
