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Republican Ros-Lehtinen to Retire From Congress; 2018 Race Shifts to Favor Democrats

Upshot Presidential Forecast

This isn't a popularity contest™

Updated three times a day, this is an electoral map derived from The New York Times Upshot state-level probabilities. The Upshot model combines state polls, a state's past election results and national polling to generate these probabilities.

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast.

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Democrat
239
Republican
139

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Split Electoral Votes
ME 3 1
NE 3 1 1

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Headlines

Republican Ros-Lehtinen to Retire From Congress; 2018 Race Shifts to Favor Democrats

While favored to win reelection, the fifteen term member represented a heavily Democratic area of South Florida

Jason Chaffetz Not Running for Reelection

The five term congressman from Utah is head of the powerful House Oversight Committee

Ossoff, Handel Advance to Runoff for Georgia Congressional Seat

At 48%, Ossoff's well funded campaign narrowly missed the 50% required to avoid the June 20th top-two runoff

Alabama U.S. Senate Special Election Moved to 2017

The election, to complete the term for the seat held by Jeff Sessions, was previously scheduled to coincide with the 2018 midterm elections

Ossoff 45%, Handel 17% in Latest Georgia Special Election Poll

Handel seems to be pulling away from the large group of Republicans in the field. Assuming Ossoff doesn't exceed 50%, they seem likely to meet in a runoff






About this Site
270towin.com is an interactive Electoral College map for 2016 and a history of Presidential elections in the United States. Since electoral votes are generally allocated on an "all or none" basis by state, the election of a U.S President is about winning the popular vote in enough states to achieve 270 electoral votes, a majority of the 538 that are available. It is not about getting the most overall popular votes, as we saw in the 2000 election, when the electoral vote winner (Bush) and the popular vote winner (Gore) were different.
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