Princeton Election Consortium

Map Based on Polling

Part of the Princeton Election Consortium polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. 

You can view the full series of three maps here.

A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases:  Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

Current

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2020 election as a Trump vs. Biden forecast. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2020 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
no 2020 election
no 2020 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

- +
Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
State District
1 2 3
ME
NE

Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

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Headlines

Overview and Live Results: Indiana Primary

May 7, 2024

Four competitive GOP primaries in deep red U.S. House seats will likely provide the most election day suspense

Live Results: Texas State Senate Special, Lubbock Mayor

May 4, 2024

The lone Senate vacancy will be filled, while voters in the nation's 85th largest city will choose a mayor

Live Results: New York Congressional District 26 Special Election

April 30, 2024

There is also a legislative special election runoff in Alabama

Live Results: Puerto Rico Democratic Primary

April 28, 2024

The territory is expected to add 55 delegates to Joe Biden's total, which now exceeds 3,300

Overview and Live Results: Pennsylvania Primary

April 23, 2024

Keystone State voters will weigh in on both presidential and downballot contests