This segment ran on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart a few days before Election Day, 2008. The 270toWin map is in the background and the site itself is mentioned at the 2:19 mark.
A pretty entertaining skit, with the theme of “let’s get this election over with, already”. Guessing there will be similar election burnout by October of this year as well.
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According to Political Wire (originally sourced from Newsweek), the Obama campaign sees five paths to 270 electoral votes, all starting with the assumption that Obama will win all the states captured by John Kerry in 2004.
Those states awarded 252 electoral votes (although Kerry only received 251 electoral votes as a Minnesota elector voted for John Edwards). As a result of the 2010 Census, those same states now award 246 electoral votes.
Here are interactive versions of the 5 strategies. Which strategy is most likely to be successful? What if the basic premise (of winning all the Kerry states) is wrong? These maps are editable…. use them as a starting point to test the Obama campaign’s beliefs against your own.
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Let’s be clear up-front: With only 56 prior presidential elections, each 4 years apart, these kinds of facts are of dubious predictive value. That said, we find these kinds of facts interesting. Use 270toWin Answers to get the answer to these types of questions for any combination of states, as well as other historical election trivia.
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The 270toWin App for the Apple iPad is now available in the iTunes store. This app literally puts the 2012 election in your hands. We took many of the best features of 270toWin and re-imagined them for tablet technology. The result, we think, is an app you’ll use over and over again until the 2012 election (and beyond).
Looking for a holiday gift? The 270toWin app is the perfect gift for the political junkie in your life. It is easy to gift the app. Just click the downward arrow below the 270toWin logo in the iTunes store or, touch “Gift this App” if you are looking at the 270toWin app in the App Store on your iPad.
Here are some features of the app that you won’t find on the 270toWin website:
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From October 25 through November 4, 270toWin conducted a straw poll on the website, asking visitors their preference in various hypothetical 2012 general election match ups. The goal was to not only take the popular vote temperature, but also to translate the votes into an electoral map, to see how that might vary based on the match-ups.
In our straw poll (see disclaimer at bottom), President Obama received more votes than each of the 5 Republicans. The popular vote was close against Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, less so against the other 3 challengers. Of course, we don’t elect our presidents based on popular vote, but rather the electoral vote. Click on “Electoral” in each table for a discussion of the results and to see the state-level outcomes displayed as an electoral vote map.
|
Match-Up |
Popular % |
|
|
Obama (D) Romney (R) |
46% 42% |
252 181 |
|
Match-Up |
Popular % |
|
|
Obama (D) Paul (R) |
47% 42% |
258 178 |
|
Match-Up |
Popular % |
|
|
Obama (D) Gingrich (R) |
51% 38% |
332 107 |
|
Match-Up |
Popular % |
|
|
Obama (D) Cain (R) |
51% 39% |
347 82 |
|
Match-Up |
Popular % |
|
|
Obama (D) Perry (R) |
53% 35% |
366 65 |
Caution: It is important to note that this is a non-scientific poll, meaning those who participated were not chosen at random, nor necessarily distributed in a way reflective of the population as a whole. At this early point in the election cycle, 270toWin draws an audience that is far more interested in politics and the election than the population at large. This audience’s opinions about specific candidates or match-ups may not reflect that of the population at large. Furthermore, even if the poll were random, the number of participants in most states was too small to draw a statistically valid conclusion.
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