Cook Political Report Updates House Ratings After Supreme Court Ruling on Voting Rights

On Thursday, the Supreme Court ruled that Alabama's redistricted congressional district map is in violation of the Voting Rights Act. The ruling upheld an earlier District Court decision that essentially said the state needs to create a second majority minority district to better match the state's Black population of about 26%.

The Supreme Court had previously stayed the lower court ruling, allowing the existing map to be used for the 2022 midterm elections. Little changed from the map of the prior decade, the election again yielded a 6-1 delegation favoring Republicans.

There are similar court challenges to congressional maps in other Southern states, including Louisiana, Georgia, and South Carolina. That could yield several seats likely to favor Democrats.  

To that end, The Cook Political Report has moved Districts 01 and 02 in Alabama, as well as Districts 05 and 06 in Louisiana from Safe Republican to Toss-up. The forecaster does note, however, that "until courts or legislatures enact remedial plans, it is difficult to predict exactly which Republican incumbents will be impacted..."

Separately, North Carolina District 01 was moved from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. In that state, redistricting favoring the GOP is expected, after the party gained control of the State Supreme Court. While a new map could yield up to four additional seats for Republicans, the thinking is that the Legislature may not be as aggressive after this ruling. This rural district is represented by Don Davis, a Black freshman Democrat, who won the seat by about 5% in 2022.

The updated Cook Political Report ratings are shown in the map below. Click or tap for an interactive version.