FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

This isn’t a popularity contest™

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2016 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2028 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2028 electoral votes will display)
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MA
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DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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Headlines

Live Results: San Antonio and Garland Texas Mayoral Runoffs

June 7, 2025

San Antonio hasn't elected a GOP mayor in 30 years, but this race looks competitive

Election Recap June 3, 2025: Dems Hold State House Seat in South Carolina

June 4, 2025

On a related note, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin has scheduled the special election to succeed the late Gerry Connolly

Live Results: South Carolina State House District 50 Special Election

June 3, 2025

This will fill the one vacancy in the Republican-dominated chamber

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville Announces Gubernatorial Campaign

May 27, 2025

He'll be the favorite to succeed termed-out Gov. Kay Ivey in this deep red state

Election Recap May 20, 2025: Pittsburgh Mayor Ousted in Primary

May 21, 2025

Mayor Ed Gainey was defeated by a more centrist Democrat.